Djokovic – Tsonga

Novak Djokovic will surely feel the draw could have been kinder to him, as the Serbian will meet a rejuvenated Jo Wilfried Tsonga in the Wimbledon 4th round. The frenchman is a player than can mix it up with the best of them and surely stands a fighting chance against the top seed of the tournament.

In-form Novak Djokovic had a big scare in the last round, landing awkwardly on his shoulder and needing medical treatment. The doctor cleared him to play however and he is feeling good, so it seems the Serbian will be at 100% for his match with Tsonga today. Djokovic did not play on grass prior to Wimbledon and Stepanek proved that a versatile grass-court game can trouble the serbian, almost pushing him to 5 sets. It was the only time that Djokovic was in trouble during the tournament, as he easily routed his other opponents, Andrey Golubev and Gilles Simon, playing good tennis along the way.

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Not even Tsonga’s worst enemy could have conceived a tougher draw for the frenchman, as Jo Wilfried had to overcome two quality grass court players (Melzer, Querrey) in the first two rounds before easing two a 3 set win against the surprising Jimmy Wang. Tsonga had a very poor season by his standards but his form seemed to improve a bit during the clay court season (his least favorite surface). He played at Queens as a preparation for Wimbledon and lost against Matosevic in the third round, but Tsonga produced his best tennis of the year here at SW19. Indeed, he needed 5 sets to defeat Melzer and Querrey but both matches were of high quality. Tsonga is serving very well, finding his shots and limiting his unforced errors.

The last meeting between the two was no later than Roland Garros this year, with Djokovic pulverizing Tsonga in 3 sets to make it 12-5 in the H2H department. However, the circumstances on grass are different than on clay and Tsonga is better suited for this surface. Djokovic won both meetings on the green, most notably a 7-6(4), 6-2, 6-7(9), 6-3 in the 2011 Wimbledon semifinals.

I fully expect Djokovic to win, he is in great shape and Tsonga is still not in his best form. However, the frenchman is improving his level of tennis, his serve is working very well and he will also be happy to have played a short match in the 3rd round after the marathons against Melzer and Querrey. It remains to be seen how Djokovic’s shoulder holds up, it probably won`t have much of an impact but if it will, it will be a negative one for the Serb. All in all I expect Tsonga to be able to hold his serve and keep this close, maybe even snatch a set if he gets in the zone for an hour or so. My tip is Tsonga to cover the 6,5 game handicap, great line and great odds. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Jo Wilfried Tsonga 7-6 6-7 6-4 6-3.

Pick: Tsonga (+6,5 game handicap)
Odds: 1.88 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 30 June