Novak Djokovic takes on home boy John Isner in the 4th round at the Indian Wells. Both players had a bye in the first round and won their matches in impressive manner.
Djokovic obviously is the big favorite in this tournament and the Serbian started in very good form, defeating Baghdatis and Ramos in two easy sets, even tough he did have some problems against the Spaniard in the previous round, especially on serve – suffering two breaks. Isner will be Nole’s toughest test so far, normally not too tough, but Big John was always able to challenge Djokovic.
I was very surprised by Isner so far. The American entered Indian Wells in horrible form, but it seems that he really loves playing here – two straight sets wins against Melzer and Kevin Anderson. playing excellent tennis. John was absolutely magnificent on serve, not conceding a single break point and losing just 12 points against serve in two matches! Suddenly, judging by what we saw at least against Anderson, Isner is looking close to his very best – as opposed to an unforced error machine, which he has been for all season so far.
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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 5-2 (4-2 on hard), but these two always played super tight matches. It`s well known that Isner`s big serve is giving Djokovic problems and one of the biggest wins of his career came against Nole here in Indian Wells 2 years ago in the semifinals. The two players also met in the semifinals last year, with Djokovic winning in 3 sets.
My tip here is a first set tiebreak and there are three clear cut reasons for that. Firstly, there have been 5 set tiebreaks in the 7 Head 2 Head meetings so far, with the other two first sets ending 7-5. Secondly, the favorable matchup allows Isner to generally keep serve against Djokovic and push him to the limits. Finally, Isner has been unbelievable on serve so far and he will enter this match with massive morale confidence, he`ll also have home court adrenaline – it should help him to continue the excellent serving for at least one set.
All in all Djokovic should win this and I don`t know of Isner can keep the highest level for more than one hour, but the matchup, Head 2 Head history, momentum and form on serve should allow Big John to be fully competitive in the first set. The odds for a first set tiebreak are excellent. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – John Isner 7-6 6-4.
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Pick: First set tiebreak – Yes
Odds: 2.75 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 12.25
Event date: 19 March