Djokovic – Nishikori

The first US Open semifinal in the Men`s tournament will see world no.1 Novak Djokovic take on the mighty fighter that is Kei Nishikori.

Djokovic`s struggles in the US Open series are long forgotten and the Serbian has put on a massive display of tennis at Flushing Meadows. Nole lost only 1 set, against a rejuvenated Andy Murray, and generally cruised trough all his matches. The Djoker was very inspired to wear out Murray and win the last 2 sets easily after the first two ended in tiebreaks – the Serbian looked in top shape both mentally and physically. His game has very few flaws, he`s making no errors, serving great and looks like the main favorite to lift the trophy right now.

Nishikori pulled off two thriller wins in 5 setters against Raonic and Wawrinka to reach his first ever Grand Slam semifinal. The Japanese is playing a smart-aggressive brand of tennis, running fast and retrieving balls but also being able to switch to offense whenever the situation asks for it. Obviously the Japanese is in top form, but one has to wonder if he will be able to cope with the mental and physical pressures in this situation against the guy who is the best in the world at both these categories.

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The H2H is 1-1 (1-0 on hard for Nishikori), but the two have not met since 2011. They should have met this year in the Miami semifinals, but Kei retired before the match.

I don`t think the Japanese can come up with the same level today after two grueling 5 setters in the previous rounds. I expected him to be fit against Wawrinka, but this is just too much. The situation is similar to the one in Miami earlier this week, when Nishi played an epic against Ferrer, found the fitness to do the same in the next round against Federer, but retired before his semifinal match – and those were 3 setters. He has a lot of stamina but his health is not always the best and Djokovic is the perfect player to take advantage of these circumstances. If Nole manages to hold off a strong start from Nishi, he should be able to cruise in a 3 set win. Of course, he would have the quality to do that even without Kei`s fatigue.

My tip is Djokovic to win with -2,5 set handicap, I`m picking this because the game handicap is just too big at 6,5 and has lower odds as well. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Kei Nishikori 7-6 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Djokovic (-2,5 set handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.52
Event date: 6 September