Djokovic – Nadal

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play their 49th Head 2 Head match, this time meeting in the Internazionali Bnl D’italia quarterfinals, on red clay.

Djokovic did not have a great week here in Rome. The World No.1 did not look good against Robert in his first match, winning 7-5 7-5 against a weak opponent. Things have gone worse in his next match, as he suffered an incredible 0-6 first set loss to Bellucci before coming back to win the next two sets 6-3 6-2. Maybe his underwhelming has something to do with him winning Madrid last week. But it might have to do with health as well. Inside reports by journalists said Nole had some back problems these days, being cranky and unresponsive.

Rafa Nadal’s level over the past month was the best we have seen from him in the last couple of years. He won Monte Carlo, he won Barcelona, he reached the semifinals in Madrid (lost to Murray) and played really good so far in Rome. Sure, he can`t dominate like he once did on this surface and will always be the underdog against Djokovic, but his level is very good. Here in ATP Rome he defeated Kohlschreiber 6-3 6-3 and Kyrgios 6-7 6-2 6-4. Despite losing a set against Kyrgios, Nadal played a brilliant match on Thursday. Nick was at his absolute best, playing some incredible tennis, but Nadal moved around the baseline like in the good old days and managed to win a superb match of tennis.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 25-3 and he has utterly dominated Nadal lately, including on clay. Nole won the last 6 H2H meetings, all of them in straight sets. He won 10 of the last 11 meetings. He won this year in Doha (6-1 6-2) and Qatar (7-6 6-2). Nadal just can`t find the answers to his game, that`s a fact, so Djokovic’s style always gives him a huge advantage when these two meet. However, I believe this time Rafael Nadal might have a slightly easier time dealing with Nole.

I`m not falling in the trap of overlooking Djokovic just because he was handed a bagel by Bellucci and he was absolutely shocking in that set. Obviously you can`t underestimate such a champion, who is dominating the sport like it was rarely seen in history. He can definitely improve as the tournament progresses.

But fact is that Nole did not play well all week, he did not play well against Robert and did not play great against Bellucci – despite turning the match around. He definitely played much worse than he usually does in the early stages. With the reports about him being cranky and having back problems, there`s a real possibility that Nole will again not be at his best – especially coming after a long week in Madrid. And he needs his best vs. this version of Nadal.

Based on what we have seen here in Rome, Nadal is playing the better tennis. Overcoming the mental block and the styles matchup against Djokovic will be very difficult. Actually, in normal circumstances it looks like a monumental task. But that might not matter if Djokovic continues to struggle and honestly he does not look like himself here in Rome.

If Nole will be at his best, he will win, but if not, Rafa is the favorite. With this in mind, I feel that Nadal is definitely worth a shot here and this is closer to a 50-50 match than the huge mismatch suggested by the bookies. Nole still deserves to be the favorite, but this is Rafa’s best chance in a very long time to defeat him. My tip is Nadal to win, but I`m keeping the stakes reasonable on the bet. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Rafael Nadal 5-7 4-6.

Pick: Nadal
Odds: 3.63 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 13.15
Event date: 13 May