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Stellar showdown in Shanghai, as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer meet in a classic that will have a big impact on the year end number 1 ranking. Fed has to win this to stand a chance of finishing first.
It wasn`t the best hard court season for Djokovic in the last few months, that`s for sure, but the Serbian has played top tennis this week at Shanghai – he had a small blip when he lost a set against Kukushkin but otherwise we have seen Nole at his best level and in these circumstances he will always be almost impossible to beat on this surface. Djokovic was ruthless in the quarters against Ferrer, there was nothing the Spaniard could do and Nole ended up with an easy 6-4 6-2 win to give him confidence for today.
Federer was so close to losing against Mayer in his first match here, but he ended up saving 5 match points and winning that, which obviously gave him a ton of confidence – Roger was flawless in his next two matches, routing Bautista Agut and Benneteau, confirming his great form this year. I was impressed by the level of play showed by Fedex against Benneteau, I was expecting a tight encounter but the Swiss won 7-6 6-0 with just 13 unforced errors and winning 34 of 37 first serves (incredible percentage, not allowing a single break point).
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
Roger leads the H2H 18-17, it`s well known that he has the game to counter Djokovic. In the last 2 seasons however Nole started to get the better of Fed due to the difference in form and right now these two seem very, very close in terms of matchup. The score this year is 2-2, but Djokovic won the more important matches.
This should be a thriller like most of the matches between these two have been lately. Djokovic has the first chance and if the odds were dead even I would bet on him, but the odds are far from dead even. As I always say in these kind of circumstances the underdog is worth a shot and I reckon 5-6 units on Federer would not hurt anybody, especially considering the potential return of investment. Roger must have at least 40% percentage chance here so I`m happy to tip Federer to win. I`m also drawing confidence from the fact that he served fantastic this week (not broken in the last 2 matches), which is always an indication of his chances against the big guys. Djokovic is playing well but in the last few months he has been unstable, so as I said I will pick Federer here. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 4-6 6-3 6-7.
Pick: Federer
Odds: 3.47 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 14.82
Event date: 11 October
i think that you have a fixation with some player,for example this meeting beetwen these two ,you always play federer to win.it s more than obiously that you are not objective. i think odds are normal. a personal opinion> i think you have to change something in your style of betting or else slowly it will destroy you.can t you see that you are going on the same line 2=3 wins than 4 or 5 loses. change something ,it is clear that you are doing something wrong somewhere, and this is going from some time it s not like u can blame bad luck. cheers!
1. I agree that many punters, maybe me included, are sometimes reluctant to change. I was so successful for a number of years that it`s just human nature to remain somewhat stuck with the winning ideas, players, types of bets, etc. You are right and surely this is something a bettor must work on. I AM working on it. I`m not blaming bad luck, I am not unlucky – my bad record is my responsibility.
2. In this particular case however, I stick to my logic. You just can`t give Federer odds of 3.50 (!!!) when he`s playing well, not even against Rafa, surely not against Djokovic. In my opinion this was a good pick (obviously), but the Wimbledon pick was also good at odds of 2.70, despite losing. I will continue to bet on Fedex when he`s getting these kind of odds (aside from clay maybe and if there are not special circumstances, of course). I`m objective, I`m looking for value – if the odds tommorow are as I expect them to be, I`ll probably back Simon to cover the spread.
– thanks for the input, I liked your comment. Cheers.