Djokovic – Federer

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will meet in a blockbuster Wimbledon final on Sunday. It will be the third time Djokovic and Federer meet in the last act at Wimbledon, with Nole winning both previous finals in 2014 and 2015.

Djokovic has clearly been the best player in tennis for the past year, and he continued with the same consistency over the past two weeks here at SW19. The Serbian lost two sets over the course of the tournament (Hurkacz, Bautista Agut), but at no point was he in any kind of danger of losing his grip on a match. He faced, in order, Kohlschreiber, Kudla, Hurkacz, Humbert, Goffin and Bautista Agut. He won his sets clearly, without even needing any tiebreaks.

Federer is riding an 11 match winning streak, having previously won Halle before entering Wimbledon. The Swiss Maestro has been in very good form lately, as he actually played very well on clay before the grass court season, reaching the semifinals at Roland Garros despite his two year absence from that surface. Here at Wimbledon Federer’s road has been much like Djokovic`s, with Roger losing three sets (Harris, Nishikori, Nadal), but always looking in control of his matches. Federer is coming after an excellent win over arch rival Rafael Nadal in the semis (7-6 1-6 6-3 6-4).

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Djokovic leads the H2H 25-22 (2-1 on grass) and lately he has been dominant over Federer, turning the matchup on its head. Djokovic won the last three meetings, 8 of the last 10, and the last 4 meetings at Grand Slams. Grass should normally favor Federer, but Djokovic won the last meetings on this surface, both of them Wimbledon finals. And, very importantly, this year the grass is slower than it has ever been – an advantage for the Serbian.

Djokovic’s incredible consistency has begun to prove too much for Federer as the Swiss Maestro got older, especially in best of 5 matches. Djokovic won the last four meetings at Grand Slams. What is worrying for Federer is that all of those four meetings had a common factor – Federer was in spectacular form before each and every one of them.

In the last Wimbledon final between the two, in 2015, Federer was coming in at the height of his powers, having played one of his best ever matches in the semifinals against Andy Murray, and he was still outplayed by Nole in the final. In the last Grand Slam final between the two, at the 2015 US Open, Federer was again in top form, having not lost a set all tournament, coming after a masterclass display in the semis against Wawrinka. Again, Djokovic beat him in 4 sets. Those were two of the best tournaments Roger ever played in the second part of his career.

Of course, Federer was at a very high level in this tournament as well, and his win over Nadal was remarkable, but I wouldn`t say this has been one of the best Grand Slams Roger played in the last few years. He did have some lapses. The horror show in the second set against Nadal is an example. As for Djokovic, he has been his usual excellent, consistent self, although a fair case can be made that he had an easy draw and hasn`t been tested.

If Federer is to win this match, he absolutely needs to dominate with his serve, but that will be extremely difficult to do against the best returner in the game. In fact, Nole`s return is the main reason for which he has gotten the better of Federer lately. And the slow grass will make it even more difficult for Federer to get easy points – he said it himself that aces and service winners are harder to come by this year.

One reason for hope as far as Federer is concerned is that compared to the last Grand Slam meetings (last one was in 2016), Roger has become more confident and aggressive with his backhand (a former weakness which Nole loved to exploit). That is the reason for which he finally got rid of the Nadal complex, and now he is beating the Spaniard any time, any hour. He will hope that will be the case against Djokovic as well. But he still lost 2/2 matches against the Serbian since this improvement, both in 2017, including at Cincinnati, one of Roger`s best tournaments.

Now, I completely believe that Federer at his absolute best can and will still beat anybody outside of Nadal on clay. But that “absolute best” does not come easy and often, and we can`t place a bet based on the assumption that a player will have one of the matches of his life.

Recent history, age/fitness, common sense and the matchup analysis all suggest Djokovic should win this, and no matter how much my heart says Federer, I have to take the Djoker in this final. Having watched how Nole bossed the last meetings and particularly Grand Slam meetings between these two, at moments in which Federer was playing lights out (arguably better than he did over the past two weeks), it`s hard to envision Djokovic losing in a best of 5 – although I fully admit that Federer can never be counted out, and can only have a limited level of confidence when betting against him.

My tip will be Djokovic to win, I thought the bookies will price him around 1.50, but odds are slightly higher. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6.

Pick: Djokovic
Odds: 1.61 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.27
Event date: 14 July

photo source: SportingLife.com