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Novak Djokovic will take on Roger Federer in the expected blockbuster final of the ATP World Tour finals, with the Serbian as a lowly 1.25 odds favorite.
Djokovic has been simply brilliant since his wife gave birth one month ago. I was expecting Nole to struggle a bit, but it seems he did not slack off in training and he played absolute top tennis in Paris (easily winning the title) and here at the World Tour finals. Nole cruised trough the round robin group stage, losing just 9 games against Berdych, Cilic and Wawrinka, looking as good as he ever has. He did have a blip against Nishikori in the semifinals, losing the second set 6-3, showing he is human after all. However, the other two sets went his way 6-1 and 6-0, so there`s no place for speculations. Nole is at his best.
Federer played pretty solid in the group stage, getting three easy wins against Raonic, Nishikori and Murray, very similar to how Djokovic won his games. However, Fed was not quite at his absolute best level of tennis and that was visible against Wawrinka in the semis, where Fed had to pull off some big magic in order to win 7-6 in the third set, saving 4 match points (3 on Waw’s serve)! He was surprisingly passive in the win, hitting just two (!!) forehand winners, but the fact that he still won against an unleashed Wawrinka says a lot. It remains to be seen how Fed will recover after the grueling three setter.
Bet on Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer with the best World Tour finals tennis odds at Pinnacle.
Roger leads the H2H 19-17 and it`s well known that Nole is his favorite opponent among the Top 4 (later edit). I would not say there is a big matchup advantage for Federer, but the point is that, if he plays his best tennis, Nole can`t beat him (Nadal for example can). Fed leads the H2H 3-2 this year but he lost the most important matches, the Wimbledon final and the Indian Wells final. Independent of the H2H, it must be noted that the Djoker is riding a 31 match winning streak indoors.
I wouldn`t put too much emphasys on the fact that Djokovic blew opponents off the court so far, his defensive abilities allow him to do that and there have been a lot of times when he lost 2-3 games per match in the early rounds only to get beaten in the finals by the likes of Nadal, Federer or Murray. I`m more worried about Federer`s lack of aggressiveness in the semis and by the fact that he might be tired after that game. If you ask me who I think will win I`ll say Djokovic (the slow surface also gives him an edge), but at these kind of odds I`ll always pick Federer to win if he`s not playing Nadal on clay. Hopefully he`ll be physically fit and if that will be the case, anything can happen, after all he did play very good tennis overall this week. Also, the Wawrinka win can be as much of a morale boost as well as it could be fatiguing.
My tip is Federer to win but I`m keeping the stakes reasonable. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 4-6 6-3 6-7.
Pick: Federer
Odds: 4.31 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 4
Possible profit: 13.24
Event date: 16 November
