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Novak Djokovic takes on Roger Federer in a blockbuster final at Indian Wells, a repeat of last years’ final won by Nole in a deciding set tiebreak.
The Serbian player has been playing his best tennis in this tournament, in the whole year for that matter. There’s no two ways about that, Nole is at the top of his game and this conditions at Indian Wells suit him perfectly. The 6-2 6-3 beating he gave Murray is a testament to this, Djokovic blew out an in form Andy off the court with an amazing smart-agressive gameplan, picking apart the Scot’s serve and doing a fantastic job on his own second serve (70% won on 2nd) – not so much on the first, there is room for improvement there.
Federer delivered a vintage clinical performance to defeat Raonic via one break per set in the semis, with the match never being in doubt. Roger did not face an absolute top opponent in this tournament, but he did meet dangerous guys like Berdych, Seppi and Raonic, doing the job do perfection. The Swiss is playing some of his best tennis this year and particularly in this tournament. If there`s one thing about his game, is that the serve is the most important barometer – if it`s working, than he’s at his highest level – and here in Indian Wells Federer allowed just 3 break points and 1 break of serve (Seppi) in his 5 matches – absolutely amazing.
Bet on Djokovic vs. Federer and watch Indian Wells live streaming at Bet365.com!
Federer leads the Head 2 Head 20-16 (15-13 on hard) and won the only meeting this year, in Dubai. You will find a 20-17 Head 2 Head on other websites, but that includes the Djokovic walkover in London last year. Federer defeated Nole in 4 of the last 6 meetings dating from 2014 onwards. It’s no secret that Roger holds Djokovic’s number to a certain extent and the meetings between these two are somewhat predictable if one of two cases happen – if Fed is in his absolute best form he will usually win, if he`s not, Djokovic will usually win.
This time however, it`s really hard to tell, as both guys are playing close to their best level, but I`d say Djokovic is a tad closer to his. This really looks like a 50-50 match, so the value is on Federer to win. My first thought was an over in games (line is very high though at 23) or a bet on 3 sets to be played, but the odds on a Federer win are just unreasonably high. The last two Head 2 Head matches were won by Roger in straight sets and I will stick to the fact that when he`s in his best form, he generally beats Djokovic, especially in 2 out of 3 sets, when Nole can’t use his stamina to its full extent.
This one should be decided by the slightest of margins and hopefully we`ll be on the receiving end of it. Even if you give Djokovic a 55% chance to win the bet still holds tremendous value. Even if you give him 60%, there`s sill value in the odds (and I would really love to see the arguments for somebody giving him more than 60). Federer will not play the next tournament in Miami, so he`ll leave his all on the court today.
My tip is Federer to win. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 3-6 6-4 5-7.
Live streaming for Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer available at Bet365.com.
Pick: Federer
Odds: 2.65 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 11.55
Event date: 22 March
