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Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will continue their rivalry with the 41 Head 2 Head episode, as they square off in the Cincinnati Masters event as deserving finalists. Both players have much more at stake than just the title, which will make this extra interesting – Federer will get the No.2 seed for US Open and become the first ever player to win 7 times in Cincy if he gets the title, while Djokovic will aim to win Cincinnati for the first time – the only Masters 1000 tournament missing from his resume – and that would make him the only player in the world to win all 9 Masters series titles, an incredible feat.
Novak Djokovic had big problems in the first two sets against Dolgopolov, being very close to losing the semifinal in the 2nd set tiebreak. However, he showed why he`s world number 1, came back in the tiebreak and ran away in the deciding set against an inspired Ukrainean. Djokovic did show some weakness in these last two weeks, including his loss over Murray in the Rogers Cup final, but overall he`s at a very good level. Nole had some physical issues with his forearm and abdomen this week, but surely it isn`t anything serious for a final.
Roger skipped the Rogers Cup and indeed looked fresh and in “beast mode” this week at Cincinnati. Unlike Djokovic, Federer won in Cincy 6 times and has a 100% percentage in finals here. This was always one of his favorite events due to the super fast courts and even if the surface slowed down, he`s still feeling great – he`s the reigning champion and played excellent tennis this week. Federer did not lose a single set and, more importantly, he did not lose a single service game! Even more incredible, he offered break points in just one game so far in the whole tournament – even Murray could not get one in the semifinals, where Federer won 6-4 7-6. The serve has always been a key barometer to Roger’s game and he`s clearly at the top of his game in that department this week.
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The Head 2 Head is tied at 20-20 (15-14 for Federer on Hard), so both players will look to get ahead. Federer always knew how to play Djokovic, the match-up is in his favor a but, but lately the Serbian seems to always win the important matches, though he always has to grind them out. The previous Wimbledon final was a good example, as Federer was playing brilliant tennis, but he still succumbed in the final. However, Roger at this age will always be more dangerous in the 2 out of 3 sets format. Also, Djokovic won the last 3 meetings (3-1 in 2015).
Normally I would trust Federer in this one, but I have 3 issues with that. Firstly, he played even better in Wimbledon before losing rather clearly to Djokovic. Secondly, I`m not sure he was as great as advertised in this tournament – the only serious opponent was Murray and Murray was tired (played very well, but not his “A game”). Thirdly, I don`t think there`s value in the odds. I will always tend to back Federer when he`s a big underdog, but in an almost 50-50 situation, I have problems trusting him on hard courts against Djokovic. I don`t see Federer’s edge compared to the Wimbledon final, he`s not playing better than he did back then, though he did add a new strategy – I`m talking about his second serve all-in returns from close the the service line, which seem cut out from a video game, but I doubt this can have a decisive impact.
Indeed, Cincinnati is one of Federer’s favorite hunting grounds and he could well end up winning this, but the bet to take here is on the under over market in my opinion. The two players are at a similar level right now, playing very well, but not their absolute best. From 2013 onwards, 7 of their 11 meetings were real thrillers and the last 4 Masters finals played on hard courts saw at least 25 games being played. I expect a very close encounter, most likely 3 sets and my tip is over 23 games to be played. Considering how much is at stake, both players will surely leave everything on the court and I can`t see any one of them going down easy. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 6-4 3-6 7-6.
Djokovic – Federer Cincinnati final live streaming available for players at Bet365.com.
Pick: over 23 games
Odds: 1.79 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.11
Event date: 23 August
