Djokovic – Wawrinka

Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will square off in the Roland Garros final, with history on the line for the Serbian, who has his best chance to complete the career Grand Slam.

After the demolition of Rafa Nadal, Djokovic was faced with the task of finally meeting an in form player in this tournament – and he performed admirably in the semifinal against Murray, played over two days. Nole did lose two sets, but was excellent in closing out the decider 6-1. There`s not much going against the Serbian right now, he`s playing as well as he ever has, but he will be under huge pressure to deliver – having everything to lose in this final.

Wawrinka was faultless in the quarters against Federer and started in the same way against Tsonga, leading with a set and a break. However, something happened there, as Stan suddenly dropped his level of tennis a bit – enought o let Tsonga back into the match. Still, it was impressive that he came on top when facing adversity (again), stole the third set and raised his game in the 4th. All in all Wawrinka played well, but not at his absolute best, so he will need to regain (and keep) his top level if he is to have any chance today.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 18-3 (5-1 on clay), but this score is really misleading. Since Wawrinka`s emergence, he was able to give Nole some great fights and actually became one of the few players with a proper style to trouble the Serbian. The last 4 Grand Slam meetings between the two all went to 5 sets, with Wawrinka winning one. The pair also met at the Australian Open this year, Djokovic ending up the victor in a 7-6 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-0 thriller.

Anticipating this final prior to the semis, I was really confident that Stan holds a chance to win, but I`m starting to doubt it more and more – Nole is just too good to blow this chance, even if Wawinka plays his best tennis. However, Stan has a lot going for him as well – and at the worst he should be able to still take at least one set.

There`s just no way the Swiss will roll over and concede defeat and he will surely have his periods of maximum level, where he will be able to go toe to toe with the Serb and even outplay him. Wawrinka’s offensive tennis can trouble the Serbian when Stan is playing well (similar to the Federer matchup for Nole). Djokovic has his moments of letdown during matches, we saw that against both Murray and Nadal, so Wawrinka will have his shot to step up and take at least one set – especially with Djokovic facing huge pressure in this final.

Stan proved himself at this level and when he will be able to play his best tennis, he could be too much even for this unleashed Djokovic. There`s also the fitness factor, with Djokovic having no days of rest, so that could count as well. All in all I expect Djokovic to eventually win, but my tip is Wawrinka to cover the +2,5 set handicap. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Stan Wawrinka 6-3 3-6 6-7 6-4 6-1.

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Pick: Wawrinka +2,5 sets
Odds: 1.85 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.8
Event date: 7 June