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Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych will square off in the Monte Carlo final on Sunday, with Nole a clear cut bookie favorite – as a bet on a Djokovic win barely has odds over 1.05.
Many questions were answered on Saturday, when Djokovic defeated Nadal 6-3 6-3 in the Monte Carlo semifinals. The Djoker was simply flawless, as he has been all year and especially this tournament (lost a total of just 18 games in 4 sets). He gave Nadal a beating, despite the fact that Nadal really played well – which makes Nole’s win even more impressive. Djokovic made the transition to clay perfectly and he is continuing to dominate like few have before him. The Serbian player looks simply unbeatable at the moment. With the Australian Open title and 2 out of 2 Masters in the bag, he can make it 3 out of 3 today against Berdych.
Tomas Berdych was at his absolute best this week, continuing the unbelievable streak he has this year. His 6-1 6-4 win over Monfils means that Berdych has now won 25 out of 25 matches against players outside the Top 10 in 2015, losing just 5 sets in the process! However, even in his breathtaking display against LeMonf, it was easy to see why Tomas has lost 5 out of 7 against the Top 10 this year (5 out of 6 if we exclude the Raonic retirement). He was painting the lines with aggressive shots, but every long rally saw him vulnerable to eventually make an error. Monfils played a really poor match, but everytime Gael manage to raise his level and keep the ball in play, Berdych was in trouble.
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Novak leads the Head 2 Head 18-2 and it`s well known that he holds Berdych’s number – it’s a very tough matchup for Tomas, as he can’t get past Nole’s defense. Djokovic also won the last 5 meetings (including 6-0 5-7 6-4 this year in Dubai), but on clay the Head 2 Head is tied at 1-1 – with Berdych winning the last meeting on the red dirt in Rome, 2013.
Berdych’s game looks so nice and clean right now, but it will not look the same against Djokovic. Tomas can not keep his level of tennis consistent over long rallies and long matches and Djokovic will make him work for every point. Especially on this slow clay, Tomas will see himself involved in grueling rallies, with Nole hitting back every ball and the mistakes will come. That happened everytime Monfils raised his level yesterday, but it will happen from start to finish today – that`s why Berdych can’t beat top players this year and especially not Djokovic. He won`t get too easy points on serve either on this surface and every point won will be a big struggle for Tomas. The slow clay worked well for Berdych so far by allowing him time to position himself for shots, which works great for his game – but against Nole that will not matter too much, instead he will be hurt by the fact that his serve will be less effective and that he will not be able to get winners past Nole.
Expect Djokovic to steadily break down Berdych’s game and I can’t see the Czech player winning more than a few games here. His inability to beat top guys this year, the Head 2 Head against Nole, the matchup and Djokovic’s imperial form will not allow Berdych to do too much. My tip is under 19 games. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Tomas Berdych 6-3 6-2.
Live streaming for Djokovic vs. Berdych available at Bet365 for all funded accounts.
Pick: under 19 games
Odds: 1.89 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.01
Event date: 19 April
