Djokovic – Berdych

Djokovic Berdych O2 betting preview

Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych will square off in the last match of the Ilie Nastase group at the ATP World Tour finals. Berdych will qualify only if both him and Federer win 2:0. Djokovic will qualify with any kind of win today, regardless of the result in the other match. But if Federer beats Nishikori with any score, Djokovic can also afford to lose 2-1.

Novak came into the Federer match Tuesday riding a 23 match winning streak, a 39 indoor winning streak and a 16 match winning streak at the O2 in London – all including the brilliant display in his first group match, when he demolished Nishikori 6-1 6-1 – showing great tennis, even if Nishikori was not 100% fit. Nole could not put on the same performance against an inspired Federer, losing 5-7 2-6. However, even though Novak was not at his best, he did play pretty well, particularly in the first set.

Berdych was disappointing coming into this tournament. He was having a great year and a great indoor season, coming of the back of a 6-7 6-7 loss to Djokovic in the Paris quarterfinals. However, Berdych struggled a lot against the top players this season, losing on a consistent basis to anyone ranked above him. This was always going to be a problem for him in the World Tour finals and it was, as Berdych was pretty much useless so far – a 4-6 2-6 loss to Federer, where he played well in the beginning but collapsed after that and a 3 set loss to Nishikori, where he was unable to capitalize on the fact that Kei was not at 100% physically. Berdych was actually going to lose in straight, but Nishikori dropped his level suddenly (and big time) in the second and Tomas could come back from a break down and snatch one set.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head with a whooping 20-2 and also never lost on hard against Tomas, leading 18-0! Obviously Djokovic holds Berdych’s number and it`s not surprising given the styles of play, as Berdych is unable to hit winners against Nole, leaving him with zero solutions. Nevertheless, the three matches played this season (all won by Nole) were pretty competitive: 6-0 5-7 6-4 in Dubai, 7-5 4-6 6-3 in Monte Carlo and 7-6 7-6 in Paris.

Even though Berdych held his own against Nole this season, those were some of his best tennis matches of the year and he still lost. Additionally, the matches were played on clay or fast hard courts, not on slower hard courts, arguably Djokovic’s best surface.

I can see Djokovic sprinting towards a clear win here. He`s in great form and the loss against Federer will only make him more hungry. He does not need a two set blowout to qualify, but he will need to take at least a set, so he has to treat the match with maximum focus. We know that Nole often hands huge beatings, he already did it against Nishikori this week and given his motivation, his desire for redemption after the loss to Roger and Berdych’s awful record against top players, a blowout Djokovic handicap win is possible. Using the same logic, at least one extra break per set for Nole is more than probable.

Berdych was rather poor this week and I can see him struggling to win games here. He could not compete from the baseline with either Federer or Nishikori, always looking the more likely player to lose the point, so against Djokovic it will be even harder. A hurt (in pride) and focused Nole should be too hard for Berdych to cope with. My tip is under 20 games to be played. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Tomas Berdych 6-4 6-2.

Pick: under 20 games
Odds: 1.79 @ Betsson
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.11
Event date: 19 November

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. We have the same opinion. Good luck! 🙂

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