Thunder – Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs will continue their quest to reach the No.1 seed in the West, as they visit the Thunder on Thursday night / Wednesday morning (European time).

Oklahoma City Thunder (35-29, 23-9 home) is in a slump right now, playing arguably their worst basketball of the season. OKC has lost 4 in a row and did so against bad teams, despite Russell Westbrook putting up amazing numbers. Russ scored 58 in OKC’s last game two days ago, but even so they managed to lose against a non-playoff team like Portland, at home.

San Antonio (50-13, 27-7 away) is currently 1.5 games behind Golden State for the No.1 seed in the West. San Antonio was given hope to reach the first seed after Durant got injured for Golden State, so the Spurs now have a realistic shot to overtake their rivals and claim home court advantage in the playoffs. Spurs have made the most of this chance lately, winning 9 matches in a row and playing good basketball. Last night they came back from a big deficit to beat the Kings, despite fielding a shorthanded lineup.

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San Antonio is back to back, having played the previous night at home against Sacramento – but their top men, Aldridge and Leonard, were rested in that game. As such, the impact of this back to back on the Spurs won`t be as high as it usually is.

OKC is way too dependent on Russel Westbrook and a well oiled machine like the Spurs, maybe the most balanced team in the league, should have an easy time defusing OKC’s offense – especially with the best defender in the league, Leonard, rested and ready to take on Russ. Spurs already beat OKC earlier this season, winning by 14 in San Antonio and limiting Westbrook to 7-17 shooting.

Actually, OKC’s dependancy on Westbrook makes them an easy target for the top teams in the league. When meeting Golden State, San Antonio, Houston and Cleveland, OKC is 2-7 this year. And many of the losses were blowouts.

The Thunder will get to the playoffs mostly because they pummeled the bad and mediocre teams (though not lately), but against the top sides, Westbrook is not enough and their game plan can be easily countered.

The quality difference, the matchup, San Antonio`s quest to get the No.1 seed and OKC’s poor form are the 4 main reasons for which I expect Spurs to win this. OKC has home court advantage going for them, as well as the fact that Spurs are back to back, but I don`t think this will be enough for them to realistically challenge for the win.

My tip is San Antonio to win and cover the 3 point spread, they are really pushing for that top seed and I can`t see them blowing their chances against a one man team like OKC. I wouldn`t be shocked if the line goes up by 1-2 points. Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder – San Antonio Spurs 100 – 110.

Pick: Spurs -3
Odds: 2.00 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.00
Event date: 10 March