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Out of form Marseille hosts the red lantern and virtually relegated Ajaccio in a game that the hosts have no choice but to win. Still, looking at the recent form of Olympique Marseille, it could be harder than expected.
Marseille is in a very bad spot at the current moment. OM has not won in the last five games (lost 3), despite not facing top teams. Nice, Rennes, Sochaux and Reims all managed to get point or points. The abysmal performances sent OM on the 6th place and now catching an european spot looks very unlikely. Marseille simply can’t score, just 2 goals in these last 5 games, both of them towards the end of matches (80 minute vs. Reims, 90 minutes vs. Sochaux last round). The situation is very bad for the home team but they will hope to redeem themselves against the last placed team in the league; Marseille simply has to win this. At least team news are good for OM, only 2 doubtful players (Valbuena, Thauvin); but Marseille was healthy in all of the last 5 games.
Marseille lineup: Mandanda – Fanni, N’Koulou, Mendes, Morel – Lemina, Romao, Ayew – Valbuena, Gignac, Paye
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Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
It seems like Ajaccio is doing well playing without pressure. The visitors were a disaster for moth of the season but after becoming virtually relegated (15 pts from safety), they started playing much better. Ajaccio has 4 points in the last 2 games, lost just once in the last 4 games and got an impressive draw vs. a very good Toulouse side in the last round. Ajaccio lost some players from last season but they still have a good squad and have potential of playing much better – and they are showing this potential now. Of course the visitors are still a long way from proving themselves and must mantain the rhythm – something which is hard to do. Team news for Ajaccio say that Zubar, Pedretti and Dielna are out. Tonucci is questionable.
Ajaccio lineup: Ochoa – Bonnart, Faty, Perozzo, Hengbart, Diarra – Lasne, Mostefa, Goncalves, Andre – Tallo
The chance of goal-shy Marseille can be that Ajaccio is conceding a lot of goals lately, but the visitors will come to defend in a 5-4-1 system so that might not be such good news for a team that simply can’t score. This 4-3-3 vs. 5-4-1 can also produce dangerous counters and the visitors have shown great hunger in front of goal lately. Marseille for sure can not be trusted to win at these odds in the current state of the team and Ajaccio, even though they are basically relegated, are in better form. It seems logical to go on an upset and my tip will be Ajaccio +1,5 handicap which seems more than safe. Marseille would be delighted with a 1 goal win, they just need the three points. Correct score prediction would be something like Olympique Marseille – Ajaccio 1-1.
Pick: Ajaccio (+1,5)
Odds: 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.09
Event date: 4 April
