Carreno – Schwartzman

Pablo Carreno-Busta and Diego Schwartzman will both face the biggest match of their carreers, as the two outsiders square off for a place in the US Open semifinals.

Carreno Busta was brilliant at the start of this year and particularly on clay he was playing some Top 10 level tennis, but an injury in the Roland Garros quarterfinals sidelined him until after Wimbledon. The Spaniard was timid while making his comeback on hard courts and his biggest performance in preparation for US Open was a third round showing at Cincinnati (lost to Ferrer). But here at Flushing Meadows, Carreno Busta steadily regained the level he showed in the first part of the season and didn`t lose a set so far in the tournament.

Diego Schwartzman is having the best tournament of his career, a true breakthrough for the petite Argentinean at Grand Slam level. Schwartzman announced himself even before US Open, when he reached the quarters at the Montreal Masters (def Thiem, lost to Haase), but he actually stepped up his game last week – with wins over Berlocq, Tipsarevic, Cilic and Pouille earning him the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career.

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This will be the first meeting between Carreno Busta and Schwartzman. The two players have similar styles, being aggressive baseliners, although Carreno Busta probably hits a bit harder and with more conviction. As for the surface, both guys have theoretically started their careers as clay courters (especially Schwartzman), but their level of play right now is as good on hard as on clay. All in all, a styles and surface analysis doesn`t suggest an advantage for either player.

Carreno Busta had a lucky draw in the first few rounds and his straight sets wins over King, Norrie & Mahut didn`t say much, but his 7-6 7-6 7-6 victory over Shapovalov in the fourth round did. It was an impressive display from Carrebo Busta both in terms of his level of tennis, but also in the way in which he handled the important moments. Carreno looked like an experienced veteran and completely outplayed the red hot Shapovalov in all three tiebreaks.

Schwartzman is obviously playing some excellent tennis himself, but he did show more weaknesses than Carreno Busta during this tournament. He lost sets against Cilic and Pouille, neither of those guys playing their best tennis on the day. Against Pouille, Schwartzman was a bit lucky to escape with a 3-1 victory, as Pouille had stretches of domination and probably should have pushed the match in the decider.

If Carreno Busta plays like he did against Shapovalov, he should win this. He`s much more consistent than the players Schwartzman met so far, and the Argentinean will not benefit from the same number of errors Cilic or Pouille made.

The Spaniard seems fully recovered from the injury he suffered at Roland Garros, he`s back at the same level he was back then and he proved all year than when he`s at his best, he is arguably a Top 10 player. His ceiling is higher than Schwartzman and he simply showed less weaknesses than him during this tournament. He simply looks the stronger and better player here.

Credit to Schwartzman, but this should be the end of his fairytale run. I will discard handicaps or under / over bets and go simple, so my tip is Carreno Busta to win. I think maximum stakes make sense here. Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta – Diego Schwartzman 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Carreno-Busta
Odds: 1.52 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.20
Event date: 5 September