Carreno – Anderson

Pablo Carreno-Busta and Kevin Anderson will meet in the quarterfinals at the Masters Event in Miami. It will be the second direct meeting in two weeks, after Anderson defeated Carreno in the early rounds of the Indian Wells in mid March.

Carreno Busta didn`t have a great season in the first two months of 2018, but he has regained his level in the last few weeks on the US hard courts, and played some very good tennis – particularly here in Miami. Last week Carreno Busta reached the R16 in Indian Wells, where he lost a close three setter to Anderson, and here in Miami he has cruised in the first three rounds. Carreno lost a total of just 12 games in his first three matches (!!!) against Istomin, Johnson and Zverev.

Kevin Anderson is in very good form at the moment. In his last two tournaments he reached the final at Acapulco (lost to Del Potro) and the quarterfinals at Indian Wells last week (lost to Coric, 6-7 in the decider). Here in Miami Anderson continued his good play, winning relatively easy against Basilashvili, Khachanov and Tiafoe – even if he did lose a set to Khakhanov, and almost lost one against Tiafoe as well.

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Kevin Anderson leads the H2H 4-0 (3-0 on hard), and the score is actually 5-0 if we include an exhibition match played earlier this year in Abu Dhabi. The Big serving South African clearly has a matchup advantage over Carreno Busta, and that will be a key factor in this match. However, in the last couple of matches Carreno Busta was able to hold his own against Anderson, and actually almost won two weeks ago in their Indian Wells meeting (6-4 3-6 6-7).

Carreno-Busta played some really good tennis this week, borderline brilliant at some points, and he seems to be at his best level right now. Even so, he surely won`t be too happy to see Anderson in the quarters. Anderson is playing very well himself, and that H2H matchup will be an important advantage for him.

Given the fact that Anderson is a slightly better player overall, and that his style of play works very well against Carreno, he is a deserving favorite in this match. That being said, Carreno is really playing some lights out tennis this week and he has been able to take sets from Anderson in their last two meetings, so he proved he can be competitive against him.

The matchup could eventually prove to be too much of an obstacle to overcome for Carreno Busta, but with his current form and consistency from the baseline he should at least be able to keep this match close.

My tip here will be over 22 games to be played, a bet which seems to be pretty safe and secure in rapport with the competitive odds it offers, especially considering Anderson`s reliance on his big serve. Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta – Kevin Anderson 7-6 4-6 3-6.

Pick: over 22 games
Odds: 1.69 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.52
Event date: 29 March

photo source: UsOpen.org