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Pablo Cuevas will take on Roger Federer in the second round of the ATP Rome Masters Series tournament, with the Swiss maestro looking to finally make a good run at a top clay court tournament this season.
Cuevas played a solid match to defeat Lorenzi 6-3 6-2 in the first round, but the Italian was far from being a dangerous opponent. Fact is that since his San Paolo win in early February, Cuevas was in disappointing form, with his only other achievement being a final showing in Istanbul – where he did play very well, but lost in two sets to a below par Federer. He followed that up with a first round loss in Madrid at the hands of Ramos Vinolas. Pablo needs to be at the top of his game to stand a chance against Fedex, but he doesn’t look to be at that level right now.
Federer was way below his usual standards on the red dirt this season, losing in his second match in Monte Carlo to Monfils and in his first match in Madrid to Kyrgios. He did win the Istanbul title, but he struggled against guys like Schwartzman or Gimeno Traver. Nevertheless, he did beat today`s opponent in the final and he is sure to take confidence from that as he will try to make a decent run in Rome. It’s a massive tournament for Roger, as he can gain a healthy amount of points this week (lost in second round last year) and he badly needs a really good week on clay before Roland Garros.
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The Head 2 Head is 1-0 for Federer, with the only meeting coming two weeks ago in the Istanbul final, 6-3 7-6 (11). Cuevas had chances to push the game into a deciding set, but Federer was able to fend him off – despite not being anywhere near his best.
Pablo’s loss to Federer in Istanbul was pretty telling and must surely be a worrying factor for him – he played a good match and Federer was miles of his best level, but still Cuevas could not even snatch a set. It brings into question the fact that Cuevas might not be able to challenge Federer even if he plays his best and Roger does not. I really expect Federer to play better tennis this week, he needs it, he`s focused and motivated. If that happens, Cuevas doesn’t have the weapons to hurt him and it should be a straightforward win.
But, as we saw two weeks ago, even a mediocre performance will be enough for Roger to win this tennis match in relatively comfortable fashion. My tip is Federer to win with a 1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Pablo Cuevas – Roger Federer 5-7 3-6.
Live streaming for Federer vs. Cuevas available for all players at Bet365.com.
Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.78 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.24
Event date: 13 May
