Cuevas – Bellucci

Pablo Cuevas Thomaz Bellucci Rio 2016 Olympics tips

Pablo Cuevas from Uruguay will square off against Brazilian favorite Thomaz Bellucci in the second round of the Olympic tennis tournament, played on GreenSet hard.

Cuevas reached the final at Hamburg a few weeks ago (lost to Klizan), losing in the first round at Umag (to Elias) a few days later. Here in Rio he played a good match in the first round, defeating an in form Basilashvili 6-3 6-7 6-3. Cuevas can play better than he is right now on his best day, but his level is still pretty high and he`s in overall good form lately.

Bellucci might as well be considered a lucky loser to reach this stage, as he was trailing Dustin Brown 4-6 4-4 in the first round before the German rolled his ankle and eventually had to retire at 4-5 in the second set. Obviously Brown was a favorite to win at that point as Bellucci did not play his best match under the Brazilian crowd pressure. His last two tournaments before Rio were a final at the Biela challenger (in which he choked against Gaio, as he usually does) and a first round exit in Gstaad (lost to Brown).

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The Head 2 Head is 4-2 in favor of Cuevas, with Bellucci winning the previous meeting, last season in Montreal. But the H2H on hard courts is 2-0 for the Brazilian. Thomaz is a more natural hard courter than Cuevas, but Cuevas has raised his game a lot on the fast surfaces in the last years. While it`s true that Bellucci has a small advantage in terms of the surface, it`s really small in my eyes.

Cuevas has a good, steady game from the baseline, keeping the errors low and that should work well against a risk taker like Bellucci. If Pablo plays like he did in the first round against Basilashvili, he should win this one as well.

Bellucci was not too solid against Brown, he was visibly affected by the pressure of representing his country in the Olympics, at home. Thomaz is a guy that always cracks under pressure and home court advantage could actually be more of a disadvantage for him in this match – especially as he will need to paint the lines pretty often in order to get past the good defense of Pablo Cuevas.

My tip is Cuevas to win. I will keep the stakes low – medium on the bet because I`m not completely sold on the level of Pablo Cuevas – but he did play well enough in the first round. Bellucci on the other hand did not and he will have to deal with the high pressure of playing in Brazil yet again. Prediction: Pablo Cuevas – Thomaz Bellucci 4-6 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Cuevas
Odds: 1.69 @ 1xBet
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 4.14
Event date: 9 August

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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