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You can hardly ask for a more unbalanced game on paper in the Italian Serie B, as league leaders Palermo take on second to last placed Reggina at Stadio Renzo Barbera. However, motivation will be on the visitors’ side and that can always be a premise for an upset.
Palermo has virtually booked the Serie B title as they are 13 points clear of the second place with 8 rounds to go, so the team doesn`t really have too much left to fight for. However, Palermo could be pumped up by the prospect on assuring promotion in the next 2 or 3 rounds (currently 15 points ahead), so they can be able to play the remainder of the season with no pressure. The hosts proved to be a level above the competition this season, they are undefeated for 15 games in the Serie B and are in very good form despite the large advantage in the standings, winning the last 3 games. Having watched them a couple of times this season I can say the team is very solid, they would clearly be able to attack a top 10 position in the Serie A with the current football they are playing. Last time out, Palermo defeated playoff contenders Trapani 1-0 on the road.
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Reggina is on the 21st place right now, 5 points behind the relegation playout positions. Needless to say, the visitors really need to get some points today or else it might just be too late to salvage anything from this season. Unfortunately for Reggina their form is not too encouraging: the team has not won in the last 6 games, winning 3 and drawing 3. Regina is on the back of a 2-2 draw at Padova, improving a little bit on their dismal away record of 2 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats.
Indeed Palermo seems to be lacking motivation at this stage of the season, but their recent results are proving that the hosts are winning games regardless if they have anything left to fight for. The 1-0 win last round at Trapani speaks volumes, as playoff hopefuls Trapani had as much motivation as Reggina has today, and of course they are a much better team and they played at home. I think the fact that a win for Palermo today would get them closer to the title and to mathematically achieving promotion is motivation enough. There`s an obvious difference in quality between these two sides, form is also clearly on Palermo’s side and home court advantage is also a difference maker with Reggina’s record on the road. Palermo defeated Reggina 2-0 on the road earlier this season so at home they should be able to at least repeat that kind of result.
Motivation is the only argument for Reggina today, and for the very good odds that we are getting for a bet on Palermo. As explained above in the analysis, I doubt motivation will have an impact here. The visitors are playing poor football right now so my tip is Palermo to win with -1 asian handicap. Prediction: Palermo – Reggina 2-0.
Pick: Palermo (-1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.76
Event date: 17 April
