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German qualifier Peter Gojowczyk (135 ATP) and Romanian number 1 Victor Hanescu (76 ATP) will square off early in the day in Melbourne for a place in the Australian Open second round.
After struggling on the tour for his entire career, Gojowczyk exploded this year with some fantastic results in his first two tournaments. He reached the semifinals at Doha after having to pass qualifications, beating Phillipp Kohlschreiber and taking a set from Rafael Nadal in the process. His good form continued in the qualies at Australian Open, where Peter destroyed all his opponents in straight sets, losing only 15 games (!!!) in three matches. Sure, Olivetti, Cipolla and Zverev are far from world class, but Gojowczyk showed the same solid and confident tennis like he did in Doha. He does not posses too many special weapons but is a good server, good hitter and good mover, an all around balanced player.
Victor Hanescu is coming close to the end of his career at the age of 32, but the Romanian is still a solid top 100 player who can mix it up with the best of them on his day. Hanescu is a claycourter and, despite having sucess on hard courts from time to time, he has played extremely poor on fast surfaces in the last year, year and a half. But, surprisingly, Victor started the season in excellent fashion with quarterfinals at Doha, defeating solid players like Sousa and Verdasco before losing a three set thriller against Florian Mayer. His serve worked very well and if that happens again today, the romanian will have an excellent chance to produce an upset.
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The H2H is 0-0, this will be the first meeting between the two. Gojowczyk’s youth and good movement should give him a matchup advantage against his slower opponent, but it remains to be seen if the german`s youth and short term form will compensate for his lack of experience. With only 3 grand-slam main draw matches until the age of 24, Gojowczyk might experience problems in keeping a top level of play in a best of 5 match.
If I would be forced to simply choose a winner here, I`d say Gojowczyk has the first chance, but no way I am trusting him at these pathetic odds. I do not think the german has more than 55% chances to win this, so I will go with Hanescu to win. The Romanian has so much more experience, a very underrated factor in betting. Also, he has shown excellent tennis at Doha himself, so with that level of play he should be able to challenge Gojowczyk even if the german will keep up his good form. All in all, Peter is yet to prove himself, especially in a best of 5 match, and 1 good tournament is surely not enough to make him a 1.45 favorite against a seasoned veteran like Hanescu.
I`ll go with medium stakes on Hanescu to win, surely a value bet in my eyes. My pick would be a 5 set nail-biter here.
Pick: Hanescu
Odds: 2.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 10.8
Event date: 14 January
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 0 for 1 in tennis tips in January
