Poland – Lithuania

Poland hosts Lithuania in Gdansk in an International Friendly on 6 June. Neither of the team has qualified for the World Cup.

Poland finished just 4th in the qualifying group for the World Cup behind England, Ukraine and Montenegro but at times the poles showed good football. Unfortunately for them they were very inconsistent and the trend continued in the friendlies which followed: draw with Germany or 3-0 win with Norway but also losses to Slovakia or Scotland. The last match for Poland was a 0-0 draw against a Germany B-side in Hamburg 3 weeks ago. For this game the home team will field a competitive lineup, but still a couple of usual regulars are expected to miss due to various reasons. Lewandowski is expected to feature in the lineup and also hold the captain armband.

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Lithuania is coming after the Baltic Cup friendly tournament one week ago where they beat Finland but lost to Latvia in the final. The visitors are having big problems in front of goal (a tradition for them) and did not score more than one goal in the last 5 games. Lithuania is on a run of 7 consecutive games which saw under 2,5 goals being scored against both poor and strong opponents (from Liechtenstein to Bosnia). The coach said that he while he would like his team to score more, he is not too worried about this issue and that he is happy that his boys is limiting the goal scoring chances of opponents.

This game has under written all over it. No team really wants to play this game, the players are relishing the vacation period and very few fans will be in the stands. Lithuania will defend hoping to get an honorable draw and I’m not sure Poland has the means or the motivation to put pressure and create too many scoring chances against a very disciplined and organized opponent. The odds for Poland are very short in my opinion and do not warrant a try, but the odds on the under are fantastic, I was expecting no more than 1.60. As I said earlier in the analysis Lithuania has 7 consecutive under 2,5 games, but Poland also played 7 matches with under 2,5 goals from their last 8. Look for a boring, low scoring match in Gdansk. My tip will be under 2,5 goals, I reckon it is the obvious and logical bet according to the analysis. Correct score prediction: Poland – Lithuania 1-0.

Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 6 June