Poland – Portugal

Robert Lewandowski’s Poland will take on Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal in what should be an evenly matched Euro 2016 quarterfinal encounter.

Poland played a different brand of football in this tournament compared to what they showed in the qualies, where they were the highest scoring team in the entire preliminaries. Here in France, Poland showed a much more pragmatic display of football and results speak for themselves: 1-0 against Northern Ireland, 1-0 against Ukraine, 0-0 against Germany and 1-1 in R16 against Switzerland. The Poles have been very solid so far, played well tactically and deserved to go through against Switzerland, even though they needed penalty kicks to do it.

Portugal reached the quarterfinals despite not winning a single game, at least not in regular time. After barely qualifying with 3 draws in the group stage, Portugal was a slight underdog against Croatia in Round 16. It ended up being one of the most pathetic display of sports you could imagine – a total bore, a 0-0 draw without a single shot on goal in 90 minutes. The first shot on goal came in the 118th minute, when Portugal also got the winning goal.

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Team news & lineups:

Both teams can field their best lineups. Szczesny continues to be questionable for Poland, but it`s already clear that Fabianski will be the starting GK until the end of the tournament.

Poland: Fabianski – Piszczek, Glik, Pazdan, Jedrzejczyk – Blaszczykowski, Maczynski, Krychowiak, Grosicki – Milik, Lewandowski

Portugal: Patricio – Soares, Pepe, Carvalho, Guerreiro – Mario, Carvalho, Silva, Gomes – Ronaldo, Nani

I`m not so sure Portugal deserves to be a favorite in this match. They are always overrated due to having big names in the squad, but those big names are past their best or / and are too individualistic to be reliable on the big stage. Sure, Nani or Quaresma can make the difference and they did it at some points in this tournament, but generally they will be kept in check by a solid team. Portugal is too dependent on Ronaldo.

Poland has what it takes to keep Portugal in check and it would be no surprise if the Poles reach the semifinals. Considering how pragmatic and tactically careful the Poles were in this tournament, it would be no surprise if Portugal is involved in another boring 0-0 draw. Their offense is devoid of any tactical idea, they are relying on the brilliance of Ronaldo + moments of magic from the likes of Nani – it might not work against a pragmatic team like Poland.

It`s hard to see any team dominating this game, it should be a close one, with most of it being played in the middle of the pitch and obviously with nobody taking too many risks. A low scoring draw is my call for this one, so my tip here is a Draw with under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Poland – Portugal 0-0 (Portugal qualifies via penalties).

Pick: Draw and under 2,5 goals
Odds: 3.25 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 11.25
Event date: 30 June