Poland – Romania

Poland and Romania will square off with a place in the Women`s Handball World Championship quarterfinals at stake. Novi Sad, Serbia, will be the hosts of this very interesting encounter.

Poland`s women’s team is nowhere near the quality of the masculine side, but the team is currently in a building process. The Polish federation has invested in the expansion of women`s handball and the results are starting to show. Nevertheless, they still have a long way to go, as the current squad lacks the talent to compete against the best sides in the world. Poland masterminded a big surprise knocking out Sweden in the playoffs for the World Cup and finished 3rd in the group behind Norway and Spain, an expected result. Poland lost by 5 goals with Norway and 6 with Spain, never troubling these two sides, but on the other hand they defeated clearly the other teams in the group (Angola, Argentina, Paraguay). Overall, the side has shown decent and balanced handball, but did not excel in any particular category and fell vastly short of challenging the top sides. Poland was clearly unable to find a scoring rhythm against Norway and Spain.

Romania is a traditional powerhorse in womens handball, but the squad they sent to this World Cup was considered to be the weakest one in a long time. With a couple of players retiring, the top-class Oltchim Rm. Valcea side being dissolved and with controversial Gheorghe Tadici as head coach, Romania was expected to finish 3rd in the group behind Germany and Hungary. However, the doubters were proved wrong, as Romania played great handball in the group stage, defeating Hungary and losing unlucky to Germany (missing huge chances), in addition to easily dispatching the other opponents in the group (Czech Republic, Tunisia, Australia). The Romanian side has been particularly impressive in defense, very aggressive and hard to break down, for example holding Hungary to 17 goals. The atmosphere in the squad is great and everybody is confident of knocking out Poland today.

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Romania has been vastly underestimated before the start of the World Cup. With the team not having the same conglomerate of superstars like in the past few years, people were quick to forget that there are still a lot of quality players in the squad and also some very talented youngsters. Buducnost`s Crisina Neagu, the best player in 2010, is also back in the squad, but she has been out with a torn ACL, not being completely recovered – so her impact is obviously reduced. Also, the controversial Tadici has proven over the years that he is a top class coach.

As auxiliary factors for this game I would note the fact that Poland had to travel for Novi Sad, while Romania played all their group games here. Also, Poland will have no fans in the stands, while the romanians are expected to be supported by 3-400 fans.

Romania easily dispatched Czech Republic in the last group game and this side is very similar to Poland in my opinion. The poles might be a big better, but not by much. There is a clear quality difference here, and looking at the squads you will really struggle to spot a position / zone in which the polish side could be superior. Watching all of Romania’s group games, I can say that they are even bigger favorites than the odds are suggesting, as Poland simply does not have the weapons to trouble them. Romania`s defense will be a nightmare for a Poland side that was clearly unable to create chances against the strong teams in this World Cup – this creates a matchup advantage for the romanians. Romania should cover the handicap here, Poland is still pretty far a way from being a top side in Womens Handball and I also doubt they will be able to handle the pressure today with a quarterfinal spot at stake.

I will take the three goal asian handicap at some excellent odds by Pinnacle. You can still find -2,5 at about 1.85, but the handicap is getting bigger every minute. The under could also be a solid bet. My pick is Poland – Romania 19-25.

Pick: Romania (-3 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.17 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.53
Event date: 15 December

Editor Facts

• Rostick is 1 for 1 in handball tips this season