Poland – Romania

Poland and Romania will square off in Group D of the 2018 World Cup qualifiers, as the Poles are looking to put Romania out of their misery with a home win.

Poland has been completely dominant so far in this group, winning 13 out of a possible 15 points and claiming a 6 point advantage over second placed Montenegro. They struggled a bit against minnows like Kazakhstan or Armenia, but did the job professionally in the important matches – and that included a 3-0 win in Romania last year.

The Romanians have been dirt poor in this group and they are virtually out of the qualifying race. While they are only 1 point behind the 2nd place, they have matches coming up away in Poland, Denmark and Montenegro, all teams currently placed above them in the standings. Plus, the second place in this Group will probably not reach the playoffs anyway. With next to no offensive power, Romania scored zero goals in the last 3 qualifying matches (and in the last 4 overall) – which is not really a surprise when you look at their poor roster.

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Possible lineups:

Poland: Fabianski – Piszczek, Pazdan, Kaminski, Jedrzejczyk – Krychowiak – Blaszczykowski, Linetty, Zielinski, Grosicki – Lewandowski

Romania: Tatarusanu – Benzar, Chiriches, Sapunaru, Tosca, Latovlevic – Stanciu, Pintilii, Marin – Chipciu – Andone

Poland is a much better team than Romania and clearly proved it back in November, when they had no problems in winning 3-0 against them in Bucharest. The Poles are in very good form as well, riding a 12 match unbeaten run – while Romania won just 1 of their last 9 matches, 5-0 in Armenia, when the hosts had a man sent off in the 3rd minute.

Poland can knock Romania out of contention here, while also virtually assuring themselves qualification for the World Cup. Even a decent performance from the hosts should be enough for a rather comfortable victory against one of the weakest teams in the group.

I am going to bet on the straight win here, as opposed to taking a -1 asian handicap. The Romanians are a defensive team which will likely park the bus and try to counter – making it difficult for Poland to win by 2+ goals. Nevertheless, I fully expect a Polish win and it should be comfortable even if it comes by just 1 goal. My tip is Poland to win. Prediction: Poland – Romania 2-0.

Pick: Poland
Odds: 1.53 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.24
Event date: 13 January