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The Blazers hold the best record in the West and will look to improve on that as they play the second match of a 4 game road series against the underachieving Detroit Pistons.
Nobody expected Portland to have such a good start, not that they don`t have a solid team, but because the West Conference is stacked with quality sides. However, the Blazers have a record of 20 wins and 4 losses so far (10-2) on the road and nothing seems probable to stop them. Superb team chemistry, great coaching and two start players in Aldrige and Lillard make for one of the best NBA teams at the moment. The emergence of Lillard has been particularly a difference maker for the Blazers this season, as well as the signing of center Robin Lopez. Portland is on a run of three consecutive wins by a combined diference of 52 points. They are back to back today after defeating the 76ers 139-105 yesterday.
Detroit was expected to be a strong contender in a very weak Eastern Conference but with a 11-13 record (6-7 at home) it`s safe to say they underachieved so far. The Pistons have one of the biggest lineups in the NBA with Josh Smith, Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe running the 3, the 4 and the 5 positions, but this hasn`t worked out to well, with Josh Smith especially struggling, though he was expected to be the go to guy. The backcourt with Jennings and Caldwell Pope has no chemistry and is of little help to Detroit. The Pistons lost 3 of their last 4 but they won last time out, edging a close game over Brooklyn two days ago.
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These two teams met one month ago on November 11 and Portland won at home 109-103, easier than the score suggests. Portland is 8-2 against the Pistons in the last 10 meetings and they are undefeated in matches against Eastern Conference teams this season.
Detroit is not bad, but Portland is the better team here, no doubt about that. They are also in much better form than the Pistons. However, the main reason for which I expect Portland to win this is that they have a clear matchup advantage over Detroit. The hosts are playing big-man basketball, with basically inexistent backcourt except Jennings. Well, Portland has Aldrige and Lopez under the paint, they outrebounded Philadelphia 46-33 last night, so the Pistons will have a very hard time dominating in the frontcourt. Without utter domination under the paint, the Pistons have no chance, as they will surely be destroyed in the backcourt by the likes of Lillard, Matthews or Batum. Portland also has a great bench, so they should be confident of building / mantaining a lead when the starters are out.
Bottom line, the visitors have the quality advantage, they have the form, the depth and most importantly the matchup. Even though the fact that they are back to back will work against them, they were able to rest the starters in the 4th quarter against Philadelphia so they should not be very tired today. Portland to win has nice odds, but the Blazers should aslo cover the spread here, as the line is rather small – and the odds, obviously, better. My pick is Portland to edge this and surpass the even money spread (-4 asian). Look for something like Portland Trailblazers at Detroit Pistons 110-100.
Pick: Portland Trailblazers (-4 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.94 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.58
Event date: 15 December
Editor Facts
- Rostick is 1 for 4 in NBA tips this season
