Trailblazers – Warriors

Portland Trailblazers will host Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night (European time) in what will be a very relevant test for the current level of last year’s finalists, Golden State.

Portland is a definite contender for a Top 6 seed in the West and the Blazers started this season pretty decent, winning by 9 against Utah and by 2 against Denver (overtime), but also losing by 8 against the Clippers, at home. The focal point of the Blazers is without a doubt Damian Lillard, who is averaging 35 points per game to go along with 8 rebounds and 5.3 assist per game after 3 matches.

Golden State made an incredible move in the summer, bringing in Kevin Durant to play alongside Steph Curry, Klay Thompson or Draymond Green. Already the best team in basketball (alongside the Cavs), Golden State was and is expected to win the Championship this season, but so far they look shaky. The move for Durant weakened Golden State’s bench immensely and also made them lose their only rim protectors, Bogut and Ezeli. After 3 games, Golden State is 2-1 with a blowout loss at home against San Antonio in the season opener and two unimpressive road wins against Suns and Pelicans.

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The two sides had a bit of a rivalry last season, with Portland handing Golden State one of their only 9 losses in the regular season, but with the Warriors winning 7 of the other 8, including a 4-1 victory in the Western Conference semifinals, despite Curry missing 3 games. All of Golden State’s wins came by 4 or more points (5 of the 7 were by more than 10 points).

Golden State is not looking that great right now and their defense is definitely in shambles – Portland should take advantage of that. On the other hand, Golden State has it’s problems against big teams that can exploit their small size and lack of rim protection. It is not quite the case with Portland, which plays a similar type of basketball with Golden State – some may call them a poor man’s Golden State.

A very interesting fact is that the Warriors, by far the best 3 point shooting team in the league, have made less than 27% of their 3 point field goals so far. That is a huge reason for which they have not been impressive. Expect that to change very soon as they are just too good and they are actually getting open looks, just missing them. Portland is not a good defensive team and plays a high tempo, so that makes me think that Curry, Thompson and Durant will go off tonight for the Warriors. If that happens, the game is in the bag.

Ont important thing to mention is that this match will end a 3 game road trip for Golden State, so these matches are usually dangerous for the road team. However, it`s only the beginning of the season, so I think the Warriors will be fine.

I will bet on the Warriors here as I think the 1.50 odds for the straight win are way too high and 4 point spread is simply way too low. Sure, each match has its own circumstances, but we are talking about a Warriors team that was priced as low as 1.20 away at Portland last season. They were at one point priced at 1.70 to beat the Cavs on the road in the finals.

I do not think Golden State’s problems are so big to warrant these high odds and Portland hasn`t been that impressive so far this season either. Two good teams, Warriors will play their 3rd successive road game, but fact is that Golden state is at another level. A decent three point shooting night, which you know will be coming soon, should see the Warriors win this by about 10. I expect them to improve with every game that passes and be unstoppable in a few months, I like the matchup for GS in this game, so I`m glad to take the odds on offer here.

My tip is Golden State to cover the 4 point handicap. A stake of 8 units seems reasonable for this bet. Prediction: Portland Trailblazers – Golden State Warriors 115 – 125.

Pick: Warriors -4
Odds: 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.88
Event date: 2 November