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Portugal will meet Iceland in the last match of the Euro 2016 group stage first round, a game which will count for Group F, which also features Austria and Hungary. Both teams will start their Euro 2016 campaign of a high after claiming 7-0 (Portugal) and 4-0 (Icenand) wins in their last friendlies, albeit over poor opposition.
Portugal (which cruised in the qualies against Albania and Denmark) has been an improved team since Fernando Santos took over. In 19 matches under the ex – Greece manager, Portugal won 13 times, losing 6 times (no draws). However, most of Portugal’s issues remain and the biggest one is the dependence on Ronaldo up front. When he`s not on fire, Portugal can struggle big time to create anything and that’s when they are in trouble – it`s no surprise that Portugal failed to score in each of its last 5 defeats. When you lose 1-0 to Albania or Bulgaria, you clearly have consistency problems.
Iceland’s progress was already obvious in the qualifying campaign for the 2014 World Cup, where they lost in the playoffs to Croatia and the Islanders really stepped it up in the Euro 2016 qualies. Iceland dominated an ultra difficult group with Turkey, Netherlands and the Czech Republic, crusing so easily that they could afford to take their foot of the gas in the second part of the qualifiers – which was the only reason for which they finished second. Unfortunatley for Iceland they have been poor in the following friendlies, posting a stat line of 3 wins and 6 losses, with the defense looking particularly bad.
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Team news & lineups:
Both teams are healthy and can choose their best lineups from the squads that have been called up.
Portugal: Patricio – Vieirinha, Pepe, Carvalho, Guerreiro; Eliseu – João Mário, Moutinho, Gomes – Nani, Ronaldo, Quaresma
Iceland: Halldorsson – Saevarsson, Sigurdsson, Arnason, Skulason – Gudmundsson, Gunnarsson, Sigurdsson, Bjarnason – Sigthorsson, Finnbogason
Portugal is not exactly the most trustworthy favorite, while Iceland produced plenty of upsets over the last couple of years and I reckon they have a good chance of adding another. We know Portugal can get ultra cold up front at anytime (not that they are generally too dangerous in offense) and this organized, disciplined Iceland team looks like the perfect opponent to force Portugal into one of those nights.
Iceland deserves a lot of credit and they must be taken seriously, but they are still underrated according to the current odds. Recent results in friendlies and the number of goals conceded have something to do with it, but it`s fair to expect Iceland to show up at its best today, defend well and try to use its massive counterattacking threat.
My tip will be Iceland to cover the 1 goal asian handicap. Portugal won by more than 1 goal in just 3 of the last 22 matches, while Iceland lost by more than 1 goal in only 2 of its last 25 matches! These stats, as well as common sense, suggest that it`s very unlikely for Portugal to cover the handicap, so we should at least get our stakes back if things don`t go as planned and Iceland ends up losing. Prediction: Portugal – Iceland 0-0.
Pick: Iceland (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.01 @ 18Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.08
Event date: 14 June
