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Euro 2016 is back after a few days of break and the competition will resume with the first semifinal, in which Wales and Portugal will fight for a place in the grand final.
Portugal managed to reach this stage without winning a single match in regular time, which is more or less pathetic and not a good image for football. However, getting here despite being unimpressive is also a testament to Portugal’s character, something not many believed they havs, considering the capricious players in the squad. It can`t be easy to grind out so many close results when the pressure is so high and that means Portugal’s resilience will give them a chance in any match in this tournament. They are on the back of a 1-1 penalty win over Poland, arguably their best match of the tournament.
Wales has shown some really, really good stuff in this tournament and their 3-1 come from behind win over Belgium in the quarters was absolutely brilliant. Not only did Wales show character and quality, but they fully deserved their win over (arguably) the most talented team in the tournament. The victory only came to confirm the recent performances of Wales, both in the preliminaries and in Euro 2016.
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Team news & lineups:
Both teams have to deal with injuries and suspensions. Wales will miss Ramsey and Davies, both suspended and this will be a massive blow for the Brits. Portugal will miss Carvalho and there are question marks over Pepe, Gomes and Guerreiro. Pepe is likely to be in the starting lineup though.
Portugal: Rui Patricio – Soares, Pepe, Fonte, Eliseu – Pereira – Silva, Sanches, Mario – Nani, Ronaldo
Wales: Hennessey – Chester, Williams, Collins – Gunter, Ledley, Allen, King, Taylor – Bale – Robson-Kanu
Wales played better football than Portugal, that is a fact and they are not much worse in terms of individual talent either. Portugal is not really as good as many think, the likes of Nani and Quaresma are past their best, the defense is shaky, but they came together as a team over the past month.
If Wales was healthy I would give them the edge here, but the absences of Davies and particularly Ramsey will hurt them a lot. Good news for Wales is that Portugal might also miss 2 regulars, but somehow you have to feel that Ramsey, who was brilliant in the Euros, is the only indispensable player missing for either team. Wales doesn`t exactly have guys that can cover for Ramsey, so they are expected to lose some strength here. Bale might need to play a bit more in midfield.
Both sides are particularly hard to beat, they lost just one game in this tournament between them and that was a totally unlucky and undeserved Welsh loss against England. If I would have given Wales a very small edge with a healthy lineup, their two absences mean that it`s very hard to separate these two teams now.
I believe this match has a draw written all over it and as much as I like Wales, I would not be surprised if Portugal manages to reach the final without winning a single match. Their confidence of winning tight matches and their dumb luck might just get them a place in the final over this Ramsey-less Welsh team – but I`m not sure about that and I don`t think it will be in regular time.
My tip here is a draw. Prediction: Wales – Portugal 1-1 (1-2 extra time).
Pick: Draw
Odds: 3.13 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 10.65
Event date: 6 July
