PSG – Bastia

Ligue 1 football is back upon us and the opening match of 2016 will feature league leaders PSG and relegation battlers Bastia, in a match counting for the 20th round.

PSG is playing some terrific stuff this season, losing a single match in all competitions, 0-1 at Bernabeu. The hosts ended 2015 in fantastic form, winning 7 consecutive matches with a 16-1 goal difference – also recording 11 wins and 1 draw in the last 12 matches. PSG has a 19 point advantage at the top of the table and the league is virtually won, but that did not stop them lately and will probably not stop them anytime soon, considering that Champions League football will only return in 5 weeks.

Bastia (16th place) currently has a 5 point advantage over the relegation line and will probably stay safe, as the team is surely good enough to deserve Ligue 1 football. The visitors won the last two matches of 2015, but will be surely worried about their record on the road today. Bastia has no wins away from home this season, scoring just 5 times in 9 travels.

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Team news & lineups:

Paris SG will be able to field the best lineup, though Motta and Sirigu are slightly doubtful. Bastia will miss Diallo and Ayite.

PSG: Trapp – Aurier, Silva, Luiz, Maxwell – Verratti, Matuidi, Motta – Di Maria, Ibrahimovic, Cavani

Bastia: Leca – Cioni, Modesto, Squillaci, Palmieri – Fofana, Cahuzac- Danic, Ngando, Maboulu – Brandao

Bastia is always much stronger at home in front of their superb fans, but this season they were truly horrible on the road and coming to Parc Des Princes will not help them improve on that awful record.

PSG is obviously a massive favorite here, but the bookmakers know that and even the odds for a 1,5 handicap win are pathetic at around 1.35. Considering this, but also the circumstances, I reckon the best bet to take is PSG to win to nil. The hosts allowed a single goal in the last 8 matches in all competitions, while Bastia scored just 5 times in 9 travels in Ligue 1. PSG might also be just a bit below their best, coming after the Winter break and holding such a big advantage, so they might not cover a massive spread – making a handicap bet risky. It seems more likely for them to keep the ball, not give Bastia any chances and score 1, 2 or 3 goals on the back of constant pressure.

My tip here is very simple: PSG to win to nil. The odds are still low, but they are fair and just good enough to be taken in a single bet. The last two H2H meetings were won by PSG 4-0 and 2-0. Prediction: Paris Saint Germain – Bastia 3-0.

Pick: PSG to win to nil
Odds: 1.50 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.50
Event date: 8 January