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PSV Eindhoven (8th place) and AZ Alkmaar (7th place) will both look for three points to save what is left saving out of a very poor season for both clubs. Especially the hosts will risk everything for the win here.
PSV has revamped the squad this year with a lot of new, young players, but nevertheless the team was expected to be placed much higher than the 8th position after 19 rounds. The only thing that worked well so far for the former champions was their attacking play, with 35 goals scored so far, an average of almost 2 per game. The style of play is very open and free-flowing, but this, combined with lack of experience, makes PSV vulnerable at the back – 26 goals allowed. PSV caught some good form with 2 consecutive wins but the run was quickly stopped last round by Ajax (1-0 defeat). Team news: Wijnaaldum is the only absentee.
PSV lineup: Zoet – Arias, Bruma, Rekik, Willems – Park Ji Sung, Schaars, Maher – Ruiz, Locadia, Depay
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Alkmaar maybe was not a favorite for the title before the season but like PSV they were expected to be closer to the front runners. They did ok until a point but recently got in a horrible slump of form with 4 consecutive defeats and have ruined all their work. But Dick Advocaat’s team finally managed to turn things around and win 3-0 last round vs. NAC Breda and also won in the cup vs. Roda (2-0). With a goal difference of 32-33, Alkmaar is one of the most offensive teams in the league – in there game an average of 3.42 goals is scored.
AZ Alkmaar lineup: Esteban – Johansson, Gouweleeuw, Wuytens, Viergever – Gudelj, Ortiz, Elm – Beerens, Johannsson, Berghuis
The statistics are obvious here. Average of 3.42 goals/game in Alkmaar`s matches, average of 3.21 goals/game in PSV’s matches. In Eredivisie Alkmaar has 6 matches with 3 or more total goals from the last 7, PSV 4 from the last 7. This calls for an over 2,5 (or more) goals bet and this will be my prediction, but statistics are not the only reason for which betting on goals is a good option here.
Often high scoring teams finish in low-scoring matches at rubbish odds but the circumstances today I think will not allow that to happen. Firstly, PSV is in must win mode, they have no choice but to attack from the off, and they might open themselves up even more than usual. Both teams score well but also have poor defenses, so they both should be able to score, unlike let`s say Ajax – PSV 1-0, where Ajax was just too solid at the back. Alkmaar`s front line is currently on fire, with Beerens playing very well, Johannsson with 12 goals in 19 matches and Berghuis with a double in the last round. Also, I doubt the free-scoring PSV will record a third consecutive under 2,5 goals Eredivisie match. My pick is over 2,5 goals with maximum stakes; I see no surprises here in terms of goals scored. PSV Eindhoven – AZ Alkmaar 2-2.
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.53 @ Winner
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.3
Event date: 25 January
Editor Facts
- Ocean is 4w – 3l – 1v in tips in January with a 9.1% yield
