Qabala – Anderlecht

Anderlecht has 3 points over third placed Mainz and will travel to Baku knowing that a win would qualify them to the next round of the Europa League. They will meet Qabala, which has zero points so far in Group C and plays its European home matches in Baku.

Qabala is still undefeated in Azerbaijan this season, topping the league after 12 rounds. In Europe they did lose 6 times, but did so in what has been a very long road from the early qualifying rounds. Qabala actually performed great in Europa League as well, knocking out Maribor and Lille and route to the Group stages. They lost all 4 matches in this Europa League Group C and are out of the qualifying race, but all losses were very close and Gabala should have claimed at least 1 or 2 points.

Anderlecht is struggling a bit domestically this season. The visitors are unable to be dominant in Belgium and they are currently on the 6th place. The gap between them and leaders Zulte Waregem increased over the weekend, when Anderlecht lost 2-3 against the leaders – a very damaging result. Nevertheless, Anderlecht has been much better in Europe, where they claimed 8 points in the first 4 rounds, including a great 6-1 home win over Mainz last time out.

Anderlecht will qualify with a win and they will try to achieve that result, but in all honesty they know that a draw would probably be enough as well – as it`s unlikely Mainz will manage to win against St Etienne in France later in the day.

I expect Anderlecht to try and win the game, but without taking too many risks, as a point would also be very valuable. On top of that, winning against Qabala in Azerbaijan is not easy under any circumstances.

The hosts have been very unlucky to not win a single point so far. They lost 3 of their 4 matches by a single goal and were very competitive at home against both St Etienne (1-2) and Mainz (2-3). In the previous match against Anderlecht, they lost 1-3 in Belgium, playing a decent game of football. Qabala knows that this might be their best chance to get a point in this group, so expect them to give it their all.

I see a difficult game for Anderlecht in Azerbaijan and if they have problems breaking down the hosts, they might settle for a draw. If the visitors win, it will probably be very close. After all, Gabala played 24 matches this season in all competitions and only once did they lose by more than 1 goal (Anderlecht away). My tip is Qabala to cover the -1 asian handicap. Prediction: Qabala – Anderlecht 1-1.

Pick: Qabala (+1 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.74 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.18
Event date: 24 November