Qarabag – Copenhagen

Qarabag and FC Copenhagen will square off in the Champions League playoffs, the last qualifying round prior to the group stages. Both teams will feel they have an honest shot to advance further, and the first leg in Azerbaijan is projected to be an evenly matched clash.

Qarabag is having a good start to the season, convincingly winning 4 of the 5 matches they played, the other being a 0-0 home draw against Sheriff in the previous qualifying round of the Champions League. Qarabag couldn`t convert their chances in that game, but qualified after a dominant second leg in Moldavia. The hosts will attempt to repeat or improve the performance they had last year in Europe, when they narrowly missed qualification from the Europa League group stages.

FC Copenhagen is not looking very well so far this year, winning just 3 matches from the 9 they played in all competitions. Copenhagen is just 8th in the league after 5 rounds, and had problems in each of the two ties they played in the UCL qualifiers – against Zilina (3-1, 1-2) and against Vardar (0-1, 4-1). The visitors are on the back of a 1-1 home draw against Horsens, despite playing most of their top guys in that game.

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The Danish side definitely seems weaker than in the last seasons. The visitors lost 3 key players in the Summer (Cornelius, Augustinsson, Zanka), and even though they brought in specific replacements for each of those guys, the new signings are failing to have the same impact.

Nevertheless, Copenhagen remains a good team and a better overall side than Karabakh, but claiming a win in Azerbaijan will be very difficult – especially with Qarabag being very strong at home, losing just twice in Baku since 2015 (all competitions)!

I expect a tight game here, with each team taking a prudent, pragmatic approach. It should be a tactical focused encounter and chances are not many goals will be on the cards. Qarabag is yet to concede a goal at home in the previous two qualifying rounds, while Copenhagen are struggling a bit to find the net with their top scorer Cornelius gone.

Still, betting on under 2.5 goals may not be worth the risk with odds as low as 1.50. I reckon there`s better value on the draw, as it seems like the most likely result in this evenly matched clash.

I will bet on the draw, but with security in case Qarabag pulls of a win. This version of FC Copenhagen doesn`t seem good enough to become only the 3rd team to defeat Qarabag in Azerbaijan in the last 20+ months.

My tip is a draw on the Qarabag win no bet market. Prediction: Qarabag – FC Copenhagen 0-0.

Pick: Draw – Qarabag win no bet
Odds: 1.87 @ Betsson
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.09
Event date: 15 August