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Last year’s finalists, Racing Metro 92, will open their 2016 / 2017 European Rugby hampions Cup campaign against Irish side Munster. The two teams are drawn in Pool 1, alongside Glasgow Warriors and Leicester Tigers.
Racing 92 is hands down one of Europe’s top clubs and they are again one of the main favorites to lift the Champions Cup Trophy – arguably second favorites behind Saracens, who beat them in the final last year. However, the hosts aren`t doing particularly well in the start of this season. Reigning Top 14 champions, Racing 92 are just 9th in the table after 8 games, winning 4 and losing 4. On the bright side, Racing 92 actually won all their 4 home games, including 29 – 22 over Stade Francais last weekend.
Munster is on the back of a 14 – 25 loss against Leinster in the Guinness Pro 12, only their second loss in 6 matches this season. Today’s visitors would have definitely wanted more from that game against their arch rivals, but winning at Leinster is always a monumental task. Munster didn`t have the best season last year in the Champions Cup, narrowly missing on qualification from the group stage, but will fancy doing better this year.
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The big news ahead of this clash is obviously the fact that Dan Carter, arguably Rugby’s biggest star of the last decade, will not play for Racing 92. Munster will name their usual starting lineup with the exception of Keith Earls and James Cronin.
Racing Metro 92: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Henry Chavancy, 12 Anthony Tuitavake, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Johannes Goosen, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Chris Masoe, 7 Yannick Nyanga, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Manuel Carizza, 4 Leone Nakarawa, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Camille Chat, 1 Eddy Ben Arous
Munster: 15. Simon Zebo, 14 Darren Sweetnam, 13 Jaco Taute, 12 Rory Scannell, 11 Ronan O’Mahony, 10 Tyler Bleyendaal, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Tommy O’Donnell, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Billy Holland, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 John Ryan, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Dave Kilcoyne
Racing 92 is the better team here, but I would not be surprised if Munster gives them a fight and ends up winning a bonus point – losing by no more than 7 points. The handicap line seems really high at 14,5 points and there`s no surprise that it is moving towards 13,5 (which is also still high). A bet on Munster makes sense in my eyes.
Munster is a very decent side, their lineup is really strong with plenty of Irish internationals and on a good day they can beat anybody, even the best sides in Europe, even on the road. They are in pretty good form and arguably more confident thatn a Racing 92 side which has underperformed a bit this season and misses its most influential player.
Dan Carter missing will be a huge blow for Racing 92, we`re talking about one of the best rugby players of the last decade, the kicker, penalty taker and decision maker for Racing 92. His absence is guaranteed to cost Racing 92 a fair number of points in this one – especially as penalty kicking should be the main scoring method in this clash.
Another fact which makes me think Munster will keep this within 15 points is that this should be a low scoring game – obviously making large handicaps more difficult to cover. Racing 92 conceded the least tries in the competition last season (0.9 per game), while Munster missed the fewest tackles between all the teams (13.7 per game). Those stats speak for themselves and Dan Carter missing could also end up slowing the game down, as his decision making often brings great dynamic to Racing’s offense.
My tip is Munster to cover the 14,5 point spread. Prediction: Racing 92 – Munster 21 – 16.
Pick: Munster +14,5
Odds: 1.88 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.04
Event date: 16 October
