Santander – Sociedad

The 90 minute goal of star striker Kone in the 1-3 first leg defeat means Santander has a lifeline here in the cup against Sociedad. For sure chances of an upset in the last Copa del Rey quarterfinal are slim, but the hosts at least have a fighting chance to make this interesting.

Racing Santander has solid chances to play Segunda division football next year. They are tied for the first place in Segunda B Group 1 and they have virtually assured themselves at least a playoff spot. Unfortunately for the hosts they lost their last match 1-0 against Zamora, so that makes 2 losses in a row for them after also getting beaten by Sociedad in the first leg of the Copa del Rey quarterfinal. Santander has been great at home this season not losing any games in the league on their own stadium and they only lost to Sevilla at home in all competitions. They will try to give the fans a memorable performance here after already upseting Sevilla (0-1 h, 2-0 a) and Almeria (1-1 h, 2-0 a) in the cup.

Santander lineup: Mario Fernandez – Perez, Lozano, J. Barrio, Saenz – Guerao, Soria – Lafuente, Miguelez, S. Garcia – M. Kone

Leaving football aside, a very important information is that Santander players have threatened to boycot the match if president Angel Lavin does not resign before the game. The players are unpaid in months. However, this is not something new, and the hosts have handled the situation well until now. So now you have the info and you decide what kind of impact will have on the game. My opinion will be later in the article.

Wide betting coverage and best asian handicap market at Sbobet. Register now to get great odds and a 150 euro welcome bonus!

Real Sociedad is flying high right now: great form with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 matches. They are 6th in La Liga and seem good value to finish on an european spot, but they can go as high as 4th if they keep up the recent performances. Sociedad mainly got their points at home and did not impress on the road, where they have a statistical line of 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats. The visitors will rest most of their starters for this game and will probably field a lineup consisting mostly of reserves. Hard to predict the exact composition of the first 11, but it could look like this:

Sociedad lineup: Zubikarai – Zaldua, M.Gonzalez, I. Martinez, J. Angel – Gaztanaga, J. Ros – Zurutuza, Vela, Chori Castro – Seferovic

I do not believe Santander will tank the match. I think there are two possible scenarios here:

1. Santander players will fail to take part in the game = void bet

2. They will reluctantly decide to play

3. Angel Lavin will step down and the players will be happy to play

I have seen so many similar situations over the years and almost always the unpaid players rally to give a great performance to defend their honor against the poor management – a stand that makes even more impact than not playing a match – especially in a high profila match with all eyes on them. Never have I seen anyone tanking a match in this kind of situation in professional football. So I will go on analyzing the football aspects of the game.

Sociedad was the better team in the first leg, but Santander proved they can mix it up with Primera Division teams – and playing at home against a weakened Sociedad side they might get another great result here. The hosts defend very well on their own stadium and are very hard to beat, of course at a lower level, but they proved their worth also against Sevilla and Almeria. Sociedad for sure will not be too upset with a draw for example, as long as they will obtain the qualification to the semifinals where they would face Barcelona. I feel the odds on the visitors are a joke in a road match were they will play with the 2nd team and do not need to win – but with the current financial situation of the hosts and with Sociedad is the highest-profile favorite of the day, everybody jumps on them – which I feel it is a mistake and gives fantastic odds on Santander. Value bet for sure.

Pick Santander not to lose this game and my tip is Racing +0.75 asian handicap at odds over 2.00. A great deal considering we get half the stakes back if Sociedad wins by 1 goal. I would have been willing to stake 10 units on this bet – but with the financial situation of Sociedad I will be more prudent. Still high stakes on a calculated risk … for great value and return of investment. Prediciton: Racing Santander – Real Sociedad 1-1.

Pick: Racing Santander (+0,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.04 @ Sbobet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 30 January