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Rafael Nadal will meet the 19 year old sensation Andrey Rubled in the US Open quarterfinals.
Nadal was pretty quiet after his record breaking 10th Roland Garros title, and struggled a bit on the faster surfaces, as he usually does. On the American hard courts Rafa lost in the 2nd round at Montreal (Shapovalov) and in the 3rd round at Cincinnati (Kyrgios) before putting together this winning run at the US Open. While Rafa played some good tennis over the last week, he did look vulnerable at times, losing sets against guys like Taro Daniel and Leonardo Mayer. He stepped up his game in the 4th round though, beating Dolgopolov 6-2 6-4 6-1.
Andrey Rublev has been solid all year and showed his excellent potential on a consistent level, but even so, his magical run here at the US Open was not quite expected. Rublev played some great tennis and lost a single set along the way (against Dzumhur), while defeating accomplished opponents like Dimitrov of Goffin in straight sets.
Bet on Nadal v Rublev and claim a 100% (100 Eur) welcome bonus at Ohmbet now!Nadal and Rublev have never met before, so this will be their first H2H meeting. The surface here is obviously not Nadal’s best, while Rublev loves it, so the Russian will hope the hard courts will give him a small advantage.
Nadal hasn`t been that great in the early rounds of this tournament, and even if he had an easier match in the 4th round, that also happened because Dolgopolov did not bring his “A game”.
Of course, Rafa is playing at a good level and you would expect him to improve in the final stages, but to be honest he has not been on top of his game, and might even look vulnerable to suffering one of those traditional upsets which happen to him from time to time on faster courts. He`s not playing much better than he did a month ago in Montreal, where he lost to another teenager, Shapovalov.
Rublev’s youth has the potential to be a downside for the Russian, and facing Nadal on such a big stage could theoretically rattle him. But he doesn`t seem like the guy to choke in big matches, and previously in this tournament he showed cold blood by playing the important points very well against guys like Dimitrov or Goffin.
Rublev has been excellent in this US Open, his serve worked great as well and he can hang with Rafa from the baseline, so he should be able to keep this close on a surface that favors him.
Question here is whether to bet on over 30 games or on Rublev to cover the handicap. I have to admit it`s a pretty difficult choice, but in the end I think the handicap is the safer bet, and is in a closer relation with my analysis. That being said, my tip is Rublev to cover an 8 game (asian) handicap. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-4 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Rublev +8 games
Odds: 1.80 @ Jetbull
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 6 September
