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High profile quarterfinal in Rome, with Rafael Nadal taking on Andy Murray in his quest to defend the Rome Master Series title.
Nadal has put on some really mixed performances this year. He started strong with the title at Doha and the Australian Open final, but since then he suffered some heavy defeats in the early rounds of tournaments, including losing in the quarters in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, on clay, in his favorite tournaments. Nevertheless, Nadal did win the Madrid title last week. He was dominant until the final but had huge problems against Nishikori until the japanese player started having fitness problems, eventually retiring in the 3rd set. Here in Rome Nadal had to play two 3 setters against Simon and Youzhny, proving again that he is in shaky form right now, even on his beloved clay.
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Andy Murray had to endure a back surgery in the end of 2013 and even though he wasn’t out of the tour for that long, it was expected that he will struggle big time in the first part of 2014. A surgery takes a lot out of you, and when we are talking about the pinnacle of sports, you need a lot of time to get back to that top class level. Andy was really shy in terms of results so far this year, not playing a single final and losing big time everytime he met a top player. His tennis is far away from his best and surely he does not have many expectations from the clay court season, considering the fact that the red dirt is by far his least favourite surface. Here in Rome Murray did not lose a set so far, but Granollers and Melzer were not exactly solid opposition.
Nadal leads the H2H 13-5 and on clay the score is 4-0 for Rafa, mostly clear wins. The Spaniard seems to hold Murray`s number as the H2H suggests.
I love the odds on Rafa here and I expect this to be an easy win for him. The fact that he is criticized this season comes from the huge expectations people had – after all, Nadal is the number 1 in the ATP Race to London standings. His season on clay was way below standard so far but he played great last week in Madrid, winning the title and the last two sets he played here in Rome showed some clear improvement (6-2 6-1 vs Youzhny). I expect Nadal to come out even stronger today and he should easily take care of an opponent who does not play well on clay and is in poor form since the start of the season. My tip is Nadal to win and cover the 4,5 game handicap set by the bookies, a break per set would be enough for this bet to be a winner. There`s really not much Murray can do on this surface against Nadal, especially in his current situation and with the tennis he is playing this year. Tasty line and odds here. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Andy Murray 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Nadal (-4,5 handicap)
Odds: 2.00 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 9
Event date: 16 May
