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Rafael Nadal has always held David Ferrer`s number, but the last time these two met it was the 32 year old Ferrer who ended up with the win. The bookies anticipate it will be revenge time for Nadal and you can hardly argue with those 1.15 odds, but the matador will surely not take this for granted.
Nadal`s dominance on clay seems shakier than ever this season after Rafa lost early in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, also losing the Rome final against Djokovic. He did win Madrid, but it was in unimpressive fashion and if Nishikori wouldn`t have suffered an injury in the final Rafa would have probably lost that as well. Nevertheless, Roland Garros has been Nadal’s preferred hunting ground over the years and again he produced the goods in Paris this year. The World no. 1 was never in danger to lose a set so far but we have to admit that he couldn`t have had an easier draw. Aside from Thiem, who is still too young to cope with Rafa on clay, Nadal met Ginepri, L.Mayer and Lajovic, so this is more like challenger tour opposition.
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Ferrer played pretty good tennis this season, reached the AO quarters, won Buenos Aires, but it was the european clay court season where he really started to play close to his best level. Even though David did not play a single final in the last tournaments, he reached the Monte Carlo and Madrid semis along with the Rome quarters, defeating players like Nadal, Gulbis (twice) and Dimitrov, almost beating Djokovic and losing only against top class in-form opposition (Wawrinka, Djokovic, Nishikori). He did suffer an early loss to Gabashvili in Barcelona but surely that must be considered an accident. Ferrer played pretty good tennis here in Paris, losing a single set (4th round to Anderson in a match he dominated clearly). Sijsling, Bolelli and Seppi all fell in 3 sets to Ferrer.
As previously stated Nadal knows how to play against Ferrer, leading the H2H 21-6 and even more comprehensively on clay (17-2). They met three times at Roland Garros, most notably in last year’s final, and every time Nadal blew Ferrer off the court, no matter how good was David’s form. Still, Ferrer won the last meeting 7-6 6-4 in Monte Carlo.
The history between these two on clay and at Roland Garros is so one sided that you just can`t look past Nadal, even though he lost the last direct match. I can`t and I won`t bet against such a huge matchup advantage, with the matchup being arguably the most important aspect in tennis. Rafa is a different animal at Roland Garros and he knows all too well how to play Ferrer on these courts, so I expect a relatively easy win for him – especially given the fact that Ferrer, even if he`s playing good tennis, he`s not at his absolute best. My tip will be Nadal to win with a 6,5 game handicap. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – David Ferrer 6-3 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Nadal (-6,5 game handicap)
Odds: 1.92 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.36
Event date: 4 June
