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Old rivals Rafa Nadal and David Ferrer will match up for a 29th time in the Monte Carlo quarterfinals, with Ferrer having to overcome a horrible Head 2 Head record, but drawing confidence from the pair’s last meeting in Monte Carlo.
Nadal is steadily improving his level of play after a very poor comeback from injury, but his improvement is coming at a surprisingly slow pace. Rafa is still miles away from his usual best and right now he`s looking vulnerable to every top player, even on clay, even at his beloved Monte Carlo. After a quick win against Pouille in his first match, Rafa had massive problems against Isner (7-6 4-6 6-3) and could have easily lost that match if he failed to win the first set tiebreak – which was a coin toss really. However, he won the third set with authority.
Ferrer made life hard for himself in the quarterfinal against Simon, a match he utterly dominated from start to finish, but somehow wasn`t able to close it in two sets – 6-2 6-7 6-1. It will remain a mistery how Simon managed to push that second one to 6-6 when he was under pressure for the whole set and the only moment when he was the better player was in the tiebreak. All in all top class tennis from Ferrer, very few errors, excellent angles, surprisingly good serve as he allowed a single break of serve to such a good returner like Gilles. David really turned back the years this season, his current 24-3 win loss record in 2015 being the best on the ATP tour.
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Nadal leads the Head 2 Head 22-6 (18-2 on clay) and it`s no secret that Rafa absolutely owns Ferrer, especially on the red dirt. The two play a similar brand of tennis, but Nadal is obviously able to play it better. It`s always almost impossible for Ferrer to cope with Nadal’s play, no matter how good David is playing. However, when Rafa is not at his best, David can take advantage – see last years’ meeting at Monte Carlo, won in two sets by David, even though one month later he suffered a heavy 4 sets loss to Nadal at Roland Garros.
Ferrer is in fantastic form both long term and short term, he`s playing arguably the best tennis of his career, but his problem is that even when at his best, he was rarely able to challenge Rafa. However, this is not the Nadal of old. Looking at how Ferrer defeated a better version of Rafa last year at Monte Carlo, he has a really good chance to do it this year as well against a Nadal that is not looking sharp at all.
My tip is Ferrer to win, obviously this would be tough to happen if Nadal somehow manages to produce his best tennis, but it`s looking impossible to happen all of a sudden. Looking at how he performed yesterday against Big John Isner, that will definitely not be enough against Ferrer.. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – David Ferrer 5-7 6-7.
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Pick: Ferrer
Odds: 3.60 @ William Hill
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 13.00
Event date: 17 April
