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Rafa Nadal will take the court today in the Rome ATP 2nd round just 3 days after he won the Madrid title. Gilles Simon can be a dangerous opponent, but he is in poor form and must raise his level if he is to challenge the Spaniard.
Nadal might have won the Madrid tournament, but the victory raised more questions than it answered. Since late February Nadal is playing very poorly for his standards and the clay court season is the worst he had in 10 years until now. Rafa lost in the quarters in both Monte Carlo and Barcelona to guys like Almagro and Ferrer and, while he did win Madrid, he benefited from a decimated draw which saw guys like Djokovic, Federer or Wawrinka out of the tournament before Nadal even started it. Even more, Rafa was on the brink of losing the final against Nishikori until the Japanese started having fitness problems and eventually retired in the deciding set. Nevertheless, Nadal was dominant until the final and cruised trough the only tough test he had, 6-4 6-2 against a very solid Tomas Berdych.
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Gilles Simon had a terrible season so far, he is number 68 (!!) in the Race to London rankings. The start of the clay court swing did not help him either, he did not win 2 consecutive match so far on the red dirt (aside for qualies) and lost to guys like Gabashvili, Rosol, Kubot or Delbonis. Gilles can`t find his rhythm right now, he is making a lot of unforced errors and that is a huge problem for him, as his whole game is based on good court movement and consistent baseline play, waiting for the opponent to miss. Here in Rome Simon played a little bit better, winning easily against Volandri, but the italian is not exactly a Nadal – caliber player.
Nadal leads the H2H 5-1 (1-0 on clay) and aside for the 2008 defeat in Madrid he did not lose a single set against Gilles, actually did not even play a tiebreak. Clearly Simon has problems against Rafa, as he can’t just return the ball and expect the Spaniard to miss – that does not happen too often.
This is an interesting match to bet on. On one hand Simon is playing horrible tennis right now and does not seem to have the playing style to trouble Rafa. On the other hand Rafa is not at his best himself and is coming after a long tournament in Madrid. This being the first match, he might save some energy. Nevertheless, I expect Nadal to win this. With all the criticism he is facing, Rafa still reached the Madrid final by blowing opponents of the court, most of them in better shape than Simon. This is still clay we`re talking about and Gilles would need his “A game” to make this close, but he simply does not have it right now – Simon did not play a single match of good, consistent tennis this season. Nadal came out guns blazing in Madrid winning his first match 6-1 6-0 against Monaco and we could have a similar outcome this time around in ATP Rome. Simon simply does not have any answer for Nadal’s game with the unforced errors he has been making all year – he does not have the serve or the ability to hit winners – and winning 4 out of 6 points to get a game will be a struggle. All in all, my tip is Nadal to cover the 6,5 game handicap. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Gilles Simon 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Rafael Nadal(-6,5)
Odds: 2.11 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.88
Event date: 14 May
