Nadal – Cilic

Rafael Nadal will meet Marin Cilic on Tuesday morning in the Australian Open quarterfinals.

There were questions about the level of Rafael Nadal coming into this Australian Open, after he ended 2017 with an injury, and also looked rusty in the Kooyong exhibition before Melbourne – when he lost in straight sets to Gasquet. Rafa answered those questions with four solid wins in the first three rounds against Estrella, L.Mayer, Dzumhur and Schwartzman, losing just one set in the process (in the fourth round to Schwartzman). Nadal is playing well, but it has to be said that his tennis can still be improved, and he will look to do that in the later stages of the tournament, starting with this match against Marin Cilic.

Cilic started the year with a semifinal showing in Pune (lost to Simon) and has been solid here at the Australian Open. He lost two sets, against Pospisil in the first round and against Carreno Busta in the fourth – dispatching Joao Sousa and Ryan Harrison in straight sets in his other two matches. The Croatian had an excellent 2017 and he will look to build on that this year.

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The H2H is pretty one sided with Nadal leading 5-1 (4-1 on hard courts), and winning the previous 5 meetings, losing a single set in the process. Nevertheless, Cilic left a very good impression in their last meeting a few months ago at Shanghai, losing 7-5 7-6 and being unlucky not to push the match into a decider.

It is probably fair to say that Nadal has a slight matchup advantage over Cilic, but the Croatian proved he can hold his own against the Spaniard when he is in good form.

I think it`s fair to say that Nadal is yet to prove he`s at 100% so far in this tournament, having a few minor issues against the likes of Mayer and Schwartzman, opponents who weren`t supposed to offer him any resistance. Of course, Rafa is still playing very well and he usually raises his level as the tournament progresses. It would be wrong to underestimate him ahead of a big match like this one.

But fact is he did show a few minor vulnerabilities, and more importantly, he will meet a very solid and dangerous opponent.

Cilic is playing good tennis, he is the type of player who can produce an upset in a match like this, and he should be able to hold his own against Nadal. The fast courts combined with his big serve should help him keep the match tight.

Rafa said after his win against Schwartzman that he feels a little tired, but that the win gave him confidence in himself and in the health of his knee.

I wouldn`t be shocked if Cilic pulls of an upset, although Nadal is obviously the favorite. But all in all I expect a closer match than what the bookies suggest. My tip is over 36 games to be played, a games total line which would almost surely be covered if the match goes 4 sets, but there`s also a chance it could be covered in three sets. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Marin Cilic 4-6 6-3 7-6 7-5.

Pick: Over 36 games
Odds: 1.86 @ 18Bet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.02
Event date: 23 January