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The best two players of the year will square off in the last act of the ATP World Tour Finals in London, a deserving finale to a great season for both Nadal and Djokovic.
Rafa had an amazing year coming back from his knee injury and has been particularly impressive on hard courts, posting a 30 match winning streak until losing to Djokovic in the Beijing final. However, Nadal seems to have lost a little bit of momentum late in the year, losing in Beijing, than in the Shanghai and Paris semifinals (to Del Potro and Ferrer). This surely had something to do with the indoor hard conditions, Rafa`s least favorite surface. The spaniard won all his matches here in London but even so he did not look to be at his best level. He was lucky against Wawrinka (7-6 7-6), lost a set to Berdych and was again a little lucky to dispatch Federer in the semifinals, with the 7-5 6-3 scoreline being way to harsh in a close match.
Djokovic is the player in-form right now. He did not lose a single match post US Open, winning 21 straight encounters and lifting the trophies at Shanghai and Paris Masters. Nole won all of his matches here in London. He did struggle in the group, needing three sets in all three games, but the opposition was very tough (Federer, Del Potro). Novak played a great match in the semis to defeat Wawrinka, 6-3 6-3. There could be questions raised over the serbians` fitness level with so many (tough) matches recently, but my guess is that he will be fresh – his stamina is amazing, and this is the last match of the season, on the greatest stage.
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The matchup between Rafa and Nole is very interesting. There was a time 2-3 years ago when Novak figured out the spaniard and he posted 7 consecutive wins over Nadal (all in finals). However, Rafa managed to fight through this match-up disadvantage and find the right answers. He leads the H2H 22-16 and won 6 of the last 8 direct meetings. Still, Nole came out on top last time, 6-4 6-3 in Beijing. Overall, you can`t say that one player holds a matchup advantage over the other. What you can say however is that the playing surface clearly suits Djokovic better. Rafa never won the ATP World Tour finals, indoor hard is his worst surface, so Nole will hold an edge in this department.
This should be a cracking encounter but I really can`t see any other result than a Djokovic win. The serbian simply plays better tennis at the moment and the conditions of play favor him, so I`m struggling to find any reasons for which Nadal could take the trophy away from the serbian. Expect long rallies, with Nole taking advantage of the surface to show the same superiority he showed over Nadal 2-3 years ago in that 7 game winning streak. Novak is serving fantastic and should keep Nadal away from too many break points, while his top-class return should give him some chances on the spaniard`s serve.
My pick is Rafael Nadal – Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-6 3-6. Unfortunately the odds are poor, but I`m not looking for value on this bet.
Pick: Novak Djokovic
Odds: 1.57 @ William Hill
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.13
Event date: 11 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick lost his last 9 tennis tips
