Betdistrict.com
After the unusual turn of events in which both Nadal and Djokovic got through the semifinals without playing a single second, the two best players in the ATP are set to square off in a blockbuster final which could well end up being one for the ages.
After the disappointing loss in the Australian Open final, when he had physical problems, Nadal took a trip on clay to win the Rio title and then lost against Dolgopolov in the Indian Wells 3rd round, an unexpected result for sure. However, Rafa seems to be back on track playing his best tennis here at Miami, where he demolished Hewitt, Istomin and Fognini (not the easiest opposition), before getting past Raonic in the quarters in three sets (4-6 6-2 6-4). Rafa played well despite losing the opening set, as Raonic was brilliant at times on the court and he`s always dangerous with that big serve. Nadal got a walkover in the semis after Berdych retired before the match. Nadal looked excellent throughout the tournament, playing his best tennis this year: very aggressive, less short balls, good serving and movement.
Djokovic was criticized this season for his supposedly poor play and people are still saying he`s far from his best form despite winning Indian Wells in a brilliant final with Federer and not losing a set here in Miami. Fact is, indeed Nole was a little off his game in the beginning of the season, but these last three weeks he really stepped it up and right now he`s the player to beat in the ATP. Yes, he is not at his absolute best, but he`s playing solid tennis, that`s for sure. Djokovic had an easy road to the final, benefiting from 2 walkovers (Mayer, Nishikori) and defeating Chardy, Roberdo and Murray in straight sets. As I previously said, he has played solid tennis but not quite at his best, looking a bit off at times, especially against Robredo.
 |
Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle. |
The H2H and matchup between these two is well documented. Nadal leads the H2H 22-17 but in the last 3 years Djokovic got the better off the spaniard, especially in 2011-2012 when Nole defeated Rafa in 7 consecutive finals (!!!) and Nadal looked completely unable to counter the Serb`s playing style. However, Nadal worked his way around the matchup and found solutions, winning 6 of the last 9 matches against Djokovic. On the other hand he lost the last two in Beijing and London last year. All in all, it`s hard to say the matchup favors a particular player at the moment, and short term form seems to be the most important factor in deciding the winner.
Miami has always been a slow hard court tournament, but this year it seems slower than ever, with basically clay-like conditions. Not only is the surface slow, but the air is very thick so balls travel at an inferior pace – right now it`s safe to say Miami is the slowest hard court tournament in the ATP. These conditions are obviously favoring Nadal, so it could be a deciding factor in this match. Djokovic did not defeat Rafa in conditions this slow since exactly 3 years (Rome 2011, clay).
I reckon this is close to a 50-50 match but I am giving the edge to Rafa because of better form so far at Miami and because the playing conditions are suiting him better. When the spaniard is playing aggressive on both sides, which is the case now, Novak always has problems. At the kind of odds Rafa is getting, Nadal to win is obviously a value bet and I am happy to go with high stakes on this choice. Somehow I always got the matchup between these two right (I honestly think I won 10 of the last 10 bets), so this gives me confidence that I will end my poor record from the last 2 weeks. My tip is Nadal to win, probably in 3 sets (the over also looks pretty good). Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Novak Djokovic 6-4 3-6 6-3.
Pick: Rafael Nadal
Odds: 2.22 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 10.98
Event date: 30 March
