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The two best players in the world will square off in what should be an epic Roland Garros final, a final that was always expected to see Rafa and Nole facing eachother. There’s so much at stake here besides obviously winning a Grand Slam title: Nadal will be desperate to prove he is still the best player in the World on Clay, Djokovic will have the chance to complete the career Grand Slam and there will be big implications on the ATP rankings as well.
Nadal has never encountered so much adversity on clay in the last 8 years. He won a single title on the red dirt prior to Roland Garros (a lucky win in Madrid) and he lost to Ferrer, Almagro and Djokovic in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome. Nevertheless, the Spaniard has always produced his best tennis at Roland Garros and there was no difference this time around. After an easy draw in the first 4 rounds, Nadal defeated an in-form David Ferrer in 4 sets, going on the destroy a tired Andy Murray in the semis 6-3 6-2 6-1. Murray was not at his best, but Rafa was simply devastating, much like in the last three sets against David Ferrer. Nadal is playing his best tennis right no, there`s little doubt about that.
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Djokovic has been the best player on the ATP tour this year and his win over Nadal in the Rome final surely gave him a lot of confidence prior to Roland Garros. Nole went on to play some excellent tennis in Paris, losing just two sets (against Cilic and against an unleashed Gulbis in the semis). The Serbian did have some ups and downs during certain matches but overall his level of play was impressive, and he is very close to his best possible level of play. The match against Gulbis was impressive, as the Latvian was playing brilliant tennis but was still unable to finish off Djokovic despite painting the lines with his power shots. However, Nole said he did not feel at his best in the last two sets, which could be seen from a slight decrease in his level of tennis.
Rafael Nadal leads the H2H 22-19 (13-4 on clay), but the lopsided scores are mainly due to their early encounters and it is well known that Djokovic holds an important matchup advantage against the Spaniard. A couple of years ago Nole won 7 consecutive matches (all finals) against Rafa, then Nadal made some adjustments and started to be more competitive but still he does not like to play against Nole. Djokovic is able to attack Rafa’s backhand, much like Rafa does with Federer, forcing the spaniard to hit short and thus gaining the advantage in the rallies. That is the reason for which Djokovic has been the only player able to consistently beat Nadal on clay in the last 10 years, but Nadal is still the better player on this surface.
Rafa is the slight favorite according to the odds set by the bookies and I have to agree with that judgement, I would actually firmly say that Nadal is still a bit underrated after his struggles this season. Odds of ~1.80 are just too much for Nadal in a Roland Garros final, he is playing his best tennis right now and the fact that he is an 8 time winner at Roland Garros will count more than one might think. Nole might have beaten Nadal on clay but not in Paris, where he also lost last year in the semis (9-7 in the deciding set). Nadal lost just once in a best out of 5 on clay (vs. Soderling), but he had fitness problems at the time. Expect the better player on the surface to prevail today, Rafa proved he can overcome the H2H and matchup problem against Nole when he is feeling confident and/or when playing on clay. My tip is Nadal to win – it will probably be tough, but one way or another I have no doubt that the Spaniard will lift the trophy for the 9th time. Maximum stakes and confidence for me on this bet. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Novak Djokovic 3-6 6-3 6-4 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Rafael Nadal
Odds: 1.85 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.5
Event date: 8 June
