Nadal – Djokovic

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will meet for the first time in over a year, as the Serbian player was finally able to return to the advanced stages of a big tournament this week in Rome.

Nadal had a magnificent start to the clay court season, winning 14 matches in a row in straight sets, only one of them going higher than 6-4. The run was surprisingly ended last week in the Madrid quarterfinals by Thiem, who played a spectacular match to knock out Rafa. Nadal resumed his dominance this week in Rome, easily defeating Dzumhur, Shapovalov and Fognini. He did lose a set against Fognini on Friday, but overall it was still a commanding performance for Nadal, who eventually won very easily, 4-6 6-1 6-2.

Novak Djokovic has been dreadful for his standards in the last couple of years, and this season has been no different. The Serbian actually played his first quarterfinal of the year this week in Rome, defeating Kei Nishikoti in three sets on Friday, after previously knocking out Dolgopolov, Basilashvili and Ramos-Vinolas in straight sets (and rather easily as well).

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Djokovic leads the H2H 26-24 and a few years ago there was a stretch when he had Rafa’s number, winning 7 matches in a row against his rival, all of them in straight sets. Nole had Rafa figured out back then, but Nadal stopped the run in the previous meeting, when he destroyed Nole 6-2 6-4 in Madrid. As such, there shouldn`t be any mental block or matchup issue for Nadal here.

Djokovic will hope that this tournament will be a stepping stone for him to return at his best level, but he has some way left to go until then.

The Serbian did show many glimpses of the old Nole this week, and played at a great level for most of the tournament, but consistency has still been an issue, and he still doesn`t seem quite the force he once was. That will not do against Nadal, and facing Rafa on clay in this semifinal might be too much and too early for Nole.

Nadal is playing his best tennis right now, and chances are that on his beloved clay he`ll take care of Djokovic relatively quickly. He will definitely be fired up for this clash with his rival, unlike in his quarterfinal with Fognini, where he started a bit unfocused and lost the first set before cruising to victory in the next two.

You need to be at your absolute best to challenge Nadal on clay, and it just doesn`t seem to be the case for Djokovic right now. It`s unlikely Nole will be able to hang with Rafa for an entire set, so my tip here will be Nadal to cover the -1,5 set handicap and win in straight. It`s worth mentioning that Rafa lost just three sets in 18 matches on clay this season. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Nadal -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.66 @ Sbobet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.28
Event date: 19 May