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Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will meet in the ATP World Tour semifinals in what is expected to be a fantastic matchup between the two greats and long-time rivals.
Nadal had an unbelievable year coming back from an injury, winning Roland Garros and US Open and getting back the No. 1 ranking (he will end the year as No. 1). Nadal has been particularly impressive on hard courts, traditionally his worst surface, posting an incredible 30 match winning streak until losing to Djokovic in Beijing. Nadal looked unbeatable for most of the year, but he did lose some steam in the latter stages of the season and did not enter the ATP World Tour finals as the big favorite. After Beijing, he lost in the Shanghai SF (to Del Potro) and Paris SF last week (to Ferrer). This week he won all his matches, but did not look to be at his best, having huge problems against Wawrinka (7-6 7-6) and losing a set to Berdych, though that match had no stakes involved for Rafa. Nadal has always struggled in the last tournament of the year because of the indoor surface and the fatigue that accumulated over the year because of his physical style of play.
Federer had his worst season since breaking into the top 10, no doubt about that. Poor performances at Grand Slams, combined with surprising losses to guys like Stakhovsky or Delbonis, have determined people to say that the swiss just can`t do it at a top level anymore. Nevertheless, these kind of discussions were ever present since 2008 and Federer again bounced back. The last few weeks have been great for the swiss, he reached the final at Basel and semifinals at Paris, losing two close matches to Del Potro and Djokovic. Here at ATP World Tour Finals he looked to be very close to his top level, losing a tight 3-setter to Djokovic, easily dispatching Gasquet and winning another three setter against Del Potro in a deciding match regarding qualification from the group.
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In the last two weeks, Federer has played 5 times against top 5 opposition (three times vs. Del Potro, two times vs. Djokovic). He won two (vs. Delpo) and lost three (vs. Delpo, vs. Djokovic twice), but all matched were close three setters, which clearly suggests that Roger can still challenge any player in the ATP.
Despite his good form, Federer will surely be on his toes meeting his nemesis, Nadal. The spaniard is dominating the H2H against Roger (21-10) and he clearly has a great matchup against the swiss. Federer has always struggled against Rafa mainly because his slice is not troubling the spaniard, he has to play with his backhand a lot, and many other factors. However, indoor hard is Federer`s best surface and Rafa`s worst, so the venue today should help the swiss overcome the match-up, at least to some extent. Nadal has never defeated Federer Indoor, where the H2H is 4-0 for the swiss – all matches played at the ATP World Tour finals!
These two met at Cincinatti (fast hard court) a couple of months ago, when Federer was playing much worse than now and Rafa much better. The swiss was very close to win that match, the surface helped him, and it should help him again today.
Overall, you have to give Rafa the edge today considering the long term form of both players this year and the match-up advantage for the spaniard. However, the odds for Federer are ridiculous as he is close to his best form at the moment while Rafa has decreased his level a bit. The short term form and the indoor hard conditions should help Roger to keep this game close and he has close to 50% chances of winning it considering the facts and arguments. If he plays like he did in the previous three games this week, Roger could and should end up winning this one after a close battle. I`m going with Federer here for what is a clear value bet. Game handicap, over and set handicap are also solid bets on the swiss, but I`ll stick with the simple win for the best value. My pick is Nadal – Federer 6-7 6-3 4-6. High stakes.
Pick: Roger Federer
Odds: 3.40 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 19.20
Event date: 10 November
Editor Facts
- Rostick lost his last 8 tennis tips
