Nadal – Wawrinka

Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka will square off in an unexpected Australian Open final. Both players are playing their best tennis right now and are deserving finalists.

Nadal destroyed Federer in the semifinals 7-6 6-3 6-3, ruining my 10 unit tip on the swiss. I can say it was one of the biggest mistakes I made since tipping on Betdistrict, I should have known better that the matchup is just too bad for Fedex, but I gave too much importance to Nadal`s hand injury. Rafa developed some ugly blisters in his palm over the course of the tournament, and he was really uncomfortable against Nishikori and Dimitrov. The match against the bulgarian was extremely poor for Nadal, a lot of unforced errors and poor serving, but it seems he recovered well and showed no signs of discomfort against Federer. Before the semis Nadal brought a doctor from Spain and was treated by a cutting edge machine, so it appears everything is fine and surely he will be completely fit for the final.

Aside from the Dimitrov and (partially) Nishikori matches, Nadal was just unstoppable and against Federer he played very close to his absolute best level. He continued his incredible form from last year (where he put together a 30 match winning streak on hard courts at one point) and he also won the Doha title prior to the Australian Open.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Wawrinka (newly nicknamed ‘Stanimal’) was not particularly impressive in the first few rounds, benefiting from 2 retirements, losing a set to Falla and edging Robredo in 3 close sets. However, he stepped it up big time to defeat Djokovic in a 5 set QF thriller and, maybe even more impressive, did not fall physically or mentally in the semis to get past a red-hot Berdych in 4 sets. It`s been a long time coming for the swiss, who steadily improved in the last 2 years, and he`s now in his first Grand Slam final, playing the best tennis of his life. Prior to the Australian Open, ‘Stan the man’ won the Chennai title without dropping a set. Wawrinka is moving better than ever, he`s fit, serves well and has arguably the best backhand in the world. Of course, he`s confident and the unforced error count is at an all time low for him.

Not surprisingly considering Wawrinka`s similar style of play to Federer`s, he has an absolutely horrific H2H against Nadal. Not only does Rafa lead the H2H 12-0. but Wawrinka did not win a single set in those 12 meetings. Rafa won 4 times last year, 2 times on hard courts. The matchup will be a huge obstacle for Wawrinka to overcome but, however, their latest match (just 2 months ago at the ATP World Tour finals) was their closest ever, with Nadal barely edging it 7-6 7-6.

Pick Nadal to win here. Rafa is in excellent form, he owns the matchup and, very important, he has a huge experience advantage, which has always been an underrated factor. Wawrinka improved a lot mentally but it`s still tough to see him coping in his first Grand Slam final with the mental monster that is Nadal. The spaniard will move Wawrinka all over the court and eventually the swiss will start fading away a little bit and make forced and unforced errors. Djokovic was a little off when the two met, but Nadal is at the top of his game. Wawrinka`s brilliant form might earn him his first set against Rafa, but in the end Nadal should win this rather easily.

The  -5,5 game handicap is not such a big line, and I fully expect Nadal to cover it even if he ends up losing a set. Overall, I predict a Nadal win in 3 sets, something like 7-6 6-4 6-2 and my pick is Nadal -5,5 game handicap. For a safer bet, Nadal -1,5 sets seems like a lock. No way can Wawrinka get past the quality gap, the matchup disadvantage and the experience factor, the only question is how close this will be, and I trust Nadal to complete the job without too many complications. 9 units seems like an appropriate stake for this one.

Pick: Rafael Nadal (-5,5)
Odds: 1.80 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 26 January

Editor Facts

• Rostick is 5 for 9 in Australian Open tips