Ram – Mannarino

Rajeev Ram and Adrian Mannarino will produce an interesting clash of styles in the Newport quarterfinals – Newport being the tournament that probably favors true grass court players the most, a special post – Wimbledon event for these specialists and the last grass court ATP event of the year.

Ram is one of those last few grass courts and serve & volley experts left in the game, so it was surely a devastating blow for him that he got injured right in the first grass court tournament of the year – missing basically all the rest of his favorite part of the season. And he was showing real promise too, reaching the semifinals at the Manchester challenger (def. Bemelmans, Nielsen, Milton) before retiring at 1-1 in the semifinals against Sam Groth – a match that probably Ram would have won if not for the injury.

Nevertheless, Rajeev Ram recovered in time to give it one more shot on grass this season and he made the most of the opportunity so far, getting a shock win over John Isner in the first round (6-7 6-3 7-6) and backing that up with a quick 6-4 6-3 win over Sugita in the second. The American is one of the guys that made Newport a “home tournament”, along with the likes of Hewitt, Mahut, Isner and a couple of others. He always plays above his level here, winning the title in 2009 and producing many other solid runs over the years.

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Mannarino had a decent season on the green – quarterfinals at Hertogenbosh, third round in Nottingham, second round in Wimbledon. He`s not a grass court expert, but his versatile game does suit the surface well. This week Mannarino defeated Haas and Roger Vasselin, but he wasn`t very impressive and he was challenged physically – both games had three sets and Mannarino was forced to play 4 sets on Wednesday – ending the postponed thriller with Haas and hours later playing the three setter with Roger Vasselin.

The Head 2 Head is 2-0 for Mannarino, but none of the meetings took place on grass, so the Head 2 Head becomes pretty much irrelevant – especially since both matches needed a deciding set. Ram poses a strong serve and likes to come to the net, a classic grass court approach, while Mannarino is more of an offensive baseliner who can also vary his shots a bit when he wants to do that.

I really fancy Ram in this one. He is a beast in Newport and if anybody doubted that, his win over Isner should erase all doubts. Mannarino is younger and he is a better player, but he was pushed physically in the last two games and that could leave a mark on him. Newport is a special tournament and I`m backing Ram to take advantage of his great form, the surface and Mannarino’s long matches.

The safer option would be Ram to cover a +1,5 set handicap, but I feel the value is just great on the American and too good to pass up. Odds are just out, but I`m sure they will drop on the American. My tip is Ram to win. Prediction: Rajeev Ram – Adrian Manarino 7-6 6-7 6-3.

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Pick: Ram
Odds: 3.10 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 6
Possible profit: 12.6
Event date: 16 July