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Local favorite Rajeev Ram and John Patrick Smith will square off in a surprising semifinal at Newport – the last ATP grass court tournament of the year and a known heaven for true grass court experts.
Ram is one of the few such experts left, a grass court, serve and volley specialist who had huge success over the years at Newport – he loves this tournament, it suits his game perfectly and everytime he steps on these courts it`s like his quality suddenly improves. Ram won this tournament in 2009 (his only career ATP final to date) and made many other solid, deep runs here.
Rajeev started the grass court season very well, reaching the semifinal at the Manchester challenger and looking likely to qualify for the final over Sam Groth, but unlucky for him he got injured and went on to miss the next 4 weeks on grass. A real blow for Ram, but he managed to return at Newport and posted excellent results – def. Isner (3 sets), Sugita (2 sets) and Mannarino (3 sets). Rajeev was probably a little lucky to defeat Mannarino in the quarters, saving match point in the second set, but his grit, determination and grass court expertize allowed him to win 2-6 7-6 7-6 over a very good, in form player in what was a quality match.
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John Patrick Smith is having by far the best tournament of his career, playing good tennis, but you have to feel that the 26 year old Australian also benefited from the luck of the draw. He beat Tomic in two sets in the first round, but Tomic was really disinterested, we know how moody he can be. After that, wins over Donaldson (2 sets) and Ito (3 sets) weren`t really that impressive for Smith. The Australian didn`t do so much on grass this season, but he entered Newport in pretty good form, after passing the qualifying draw at Wimbledon and losing to De Schepper in 5 sets.
The Head 2 Head is 1-1, but the two haven`t played on grass and the last meeting was in 2013, so there`s really not much to extract from the H2H. Both players are good on grass, but Ram still holds a big advantage – he is an expert on the surface, while Smith is simply competent to play on it.
The odds on Ram are plummeting and it`s not a surprise that is happening. The American played some excellent tennis this week, defeating top players in good form like Isner and Mannarino and he`s pretty much a local favorite of this tournament, by far his favorite one on the tour. Smith is playing well, but I don`t see him coping with Ram`s serve and volley game and sharp winners.
Current form, surface and experience should make the difference in this clash as far as I`m concerned. Rajeev is just to experienced and comfortable at Newport to blow what is arguably his last chance for an ATP final, not against a guy with zero experience at this level. My tip is Ram to win. Prediction: Rajeev Ram – John Patrick Smith 7-6 7-5.
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Pick: Ram
Odds: 1.57 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.13
Event date: 18 July
