Ram – Lorenzi

Rajeev Ram takes on Paolo Lorenzi in the first round at ATP Vienna and the odds are moving fast on this match. The tournament is held on indoor hard.

Rajeev Ram showed us some of that vintage serve and volley tennis this season, particularly in his run for the second Newport title a few months ago. It has been a good year for the American, but he seems to have lost his form lately. Having a better ranking, Ram entered ATP tournaments instead of challenger and could not quite meet the required level. Ram did not play much lately and lost his last 4 matches – including 0-2 against Przysiezny in the Shanghai 1st qualifying round last week.

Lorenzi lost in the first round at the Cassablanca challenger last week, but the Italian was in absolute top shape up to that point, winning two back to back challenger titles at Pereira and Medellin. The loss at Cassablanca was more due to fatigue. Lorenzi was really killing it in South America, moving extremely well and showing nice shotmaking abilities, I was impressed with his performance. However, it will not be easy for the Italian in Vienna, as he will move from his beloved clay to hard courts, a surface that he doesn`t exactly like.

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This will be the first meeting between the two players. Lorenzi will feel that his brand of baseline tennis is a good matchup against an attacking player like Ram, but the American is clearly favored by the fast indoor hard surface.

Currently the odds on Ram are dropping, but I do not see him as the favorite here and I would not be surprised if the odds on him will start going up soon. The American is not in good form and his confidence, which is crucial for his attacking game, is clearly missing. Paolo Lorenzi is a clay courter, but he can play on hard as well. He beat Dolgopolov 3-0 in Australian Open this year and played two indoor hard tournaments in the last month, before his winning run on clay in South America – beating Darcis and Kravchuk, losing to Kohlschreiber.

Rajeev Ram has the obvious advantage of the fast surface, but I do not think it will be enough. It`s not like Lorenzi can`t play tennis on hard and he has the weapons to get Ram out of rhythm. The fast moving baseline game of the Italian will likely work very well against an attacking, error-prone serve & volleyer like Rajeev. I expect Lorenzi to put the ball back into court, forcing Ram to hit another shot. With the dreadful form of the American, he`s likely to miss a lot against Lorenzi today.

My tip is Paolo Lorenzi to win this. Prediction: Rajeev Ram – Paolo Lorenzi 7-6 3-6 4-6.

Pick: Lorenzi
Odds: 2.30 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 9.1
Event date: 20 October