Rapid – Steaua

Romanian Liga 1, first round. Rapid hosts Steaua for the 2nd time in 2 weeks after the visitors won 2-1 in the League Cup. This is one of the biggest derbies in Romanian football.

Rapid had to play in the second league last season due to financial problems; the club was very close to bankrupcy but still managed to achieve promotion … a good result despite the players being unpaid for basically the whole year. Apparently this week Rapid finally found an investor … and a new coach (Ionel Ganea) was put in charge of the club, but the papers are not finalized yet and things are not certain. Even if everything will go fine, Rapid is still low in numbers and in quality for this match, players are still not paid and the hosts will barely be able to fill the match squad. The current team has no quality to stay in the Liga 1, even captain Pancu said it. But Rapid will be fired up for the derby against Steaua, no matter the circumstances – they played with spirit in the League Cup as well, but simply did not have the quality even if Steaua rested most starters and played only a handful of important players!

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Steaua went trough changes this season and they are weaker than last season when they dominated the league … Steaua lost a couple of important players and manager Reghencampf as well … best manager they had in 10 years. Owner is in jail and general manager is in jail for fiscal evasion. New coach is unexperienced and unproven ex Steaua player Costel Galca. But even with this changes Steaua is still a top team in Romania, for sure will fight for the title again. Steaua still has a very good squad, probably the best in Romania and also started the season pretty well with good results … lost Supercup to Astra at penalties but beat Rapid in League Cup (with the reserves!) and qualified in Champions League against Stromsgodset. No clear handicap for Steaua against a team like Rapid, they are superior in every aspect for now.

If we think that Steaua beat Rapid with the reserve squad 2 weeks ago and also that Steaua will be buoyed after qualifying further in the Champions League, it’s hard to bet on anything else than a Steaua win. This time Steaua will play with the first team, will be more motivated because it`s the League … and it’s not logical that the odds are similar to the ones in the League Cup. The quality difference is just too big and I can’t see any reason in the analysis to avoid a bet on Steaua … expect a spirited performance from Rapid but Steaua is just 2-3 classes above them. My tip is Steaua to win, probably they should cover a handicap but simple win is the safer result and I will go on that with high stakes. Correct score prediction: Rapid Bucharest – Steaua Bucharest 0-2.

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Pick: Steaua
Odds: 1.55 @ Winner
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.5
Event date: 26 July